Global temperatures are approaching historic highs in 2026, as human-driven climate change combines with an exceptionally strong El Niño. New findings released during the opening of the COP31 climate summit in Türkiye indicate that the current period of extreme warmth could continue well into next year.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reports that temperatures between January and September averaged 1.47°C above pre-industrial levels. While scientists differ on whether 2026 will surpass the record set in 2024, their assessments point to another year of exceptional heat, alongside growing concerns over ocean temperatures, water resources and extreme weather.
Scientists Report Record Ocean Temperatures As El Niño Intensifies
According to the WMO’s State of the Climate Update, published November 9, the years 2015 through 2026 represent the 12 warmest years on record. The organization expects 2026 to rank among the four hottest, with 2023 through 2026 occupying the highest positions.
Other scientific assessments suggest an even higher ranking. Berkeley Earth estimates a 95% probability that 2026 will surpass 2024, while the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service considers it most likely to become the second-warmest year.
Copernicus places the annual temperature anomaly between 1.56°C and 1.61°C above the 1850–1900 baseline. Its analysis also indicates an approximately 20% probability that 2026 will match or exceed the existing record.
October offered further evidence of the warming trend. Global temperatures reached 1.75°C above pre-industrial levels, making it the warmest October recorded.
The tropical Pacific has experienced particularly unusual conditions. During October, sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region reached 29.94°C, with an anomaly of 3.21°C, exceeding measurements from previous major El Niño events.
The WMO expects El Niño to reach record strength by December, with its influence continuing into early 2027. “El Niño doesn’t add new heat to the planet. It releases heat from the ocean, which is the warmest ever measured,” WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo explained.
Ocean heat content is also approaching a tenth consecutive annual record, while global mean sea levels have reached their highest point since satellite measurements began in 1993.
Extreme Weather Raises Concerns As Climate Negotiations Begin
The consequences of exceptional temperatures have already affected communities across several continents.
According to United Nations reporting, approximately 146.5 million people in India experienced an extreme heatwave in April, when temperatures reached 47°C. Across Europe, provisional estimates indicated more than 30,000 excess deaths during the summer.
In Nepal, a glacier collapse and subsequent flash flooding in August killed more than 1,300 people, illustrating the dangers facing vulnerable mountain communities.
Extreme heat, drought and heavy rainfall remain major concerns as El Niño intensifies. The WMO describes the phenomenon as a risk multiplier, capable of worsening weather-related hazards in a climate already warmed by greenhouse gas emissions.
These findings have become part of discussions at COP31 in Antalya, where governments are considering emissions reductions, climate adaptation and financial assistance for vulnerable countries.
The United Nations Environment Programme estimates that existing policies place the world on a trajectory toward 2.8°C of warming by 2100. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency forecasts nearly 4,800 gigawatts of additional renewable electricity capacity between 2026 and 2031. The WMO’s final State of the Global Climate 2026 report is scheduled for publication in March 2027.
