The El Niño weather pattern has officially begun, US and international scientists warn, raising concerns about extreme temperatures and widespread disruption worldwide, including the UK. The phenomenon, caused by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific, could combine with human-driven global warming to produce record heat in 2027.
El Niño Could Amplify UK Weather
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported that sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific have passed the threshold defining an El Niño event. Winds above the equatorial Pacific have also shifted, indicating that the atmosphere is now responding to the warming oceans.
Forecasters predict that this could become a very strong “super” El Niño, potentially rivaling historic events such as 1982/83, 1997/98, and 2015/16. Some computer models even suggest tropical Pacific temperatures could rise more than 3C above average by the end of the year.
Global Heat Amplified by Climate Change
Experts caution that even typical El Niño events, which usually raise global air temperatures by around 0.2C, could be supercharged by ongoing climate change. Prof Adam Scaife of the UK Met Office noted that this El Niño “rides on top of a substantial amount of global warming,” meaning affected regions could experience unprecedented temperatures.
Previous years illustrate the potential impact. The year 2024, the warmest on record globally, was influenced by a moderate El Niño, and 2025 was still the third warmest year despite a La Niña event.
Expected Impacts in the UK
While El Niño’s effects are felt most strongly in the tropics, the UK can experience subtle shifts. The Met Office says El Niño may tilt the odds toward a mild start and a colder end to winter, though such effects are not guaranteed. More broadly, UK agriculture and food supply could be affected by disruptions in global weather patterns, particularly in regions dependent on imported crops or affected by international price spikes.
Global Human and Economic Effects
El Niño typically brings flooding to Peru, Ecuador, parts of East Africa, and the southern United States, while drought and wildfire risks rise across Australia, Indonesia, and northern South America. For millions of people in vulnerable regions, the combination of heatwaves, failed rains, and rising food prices could be devastating.
Japan’s Meteorological Agency has also confirmed El Niño conditions, and Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology predicts development later this year. Although it remains unclear whether climate change is making these events more frequent, a warmer world is likely to amplify their impacts, with knock-on effects felt even in the UK.
