The expected conditions would mark the fifth heatwave of the summer, following an unusually hot and dry period that has already brought drought, wildfires and repeated temperatures above 30C. Wales and half of England are currently in drought, while millions of households are facing restrictions on water use.
Thursday Expected to Bring the Highest Temperatures
Monday is forecast to be slightly cooler before temperatures begin climbing again on Tuesday. According to Met Office meteorologist Tom Morgan, highs are likely to reach the mid-30s quite widely across England and Wales on Wednesday and Thursday.
Morgan said there was a small chance of 36C being recorded on Wednesday in areas including the Midlands, the M4 corridor west of London and locations farther south. Thursday currently appears more likely to be the hottest day of the week. “36C is a fairly reasonable probability locally,” Morgan said, adding that there was also a small chance temperatures could rise beyond that level.
The Met Office is considering whether conditions justify extreme heat warnings. According to Morgan, amber and red warnings, similar to those issued in June, remain under consideration as forecasters assess the expected severity and possible impacts.
Health concerns are also increasing. Yellow heat-health alerts issued by the UK Health Security Agency are in force for the East Midlands, West Midlands, south-east, south-west and east of England, Yorkshire and the Humber, and London.
Those alerts currently remain in place until 9pm on Tuesday, although they may be extended if the hot weather continues. Officials have warned that serious consequences are possible in health and social care settings, alongside a potential increase in deaths among vulnerable people.
Drought and Repeated Heat Have Defined the Summer
The latest heatwave comes during a summer already marked by exceptional temperatures and prolonged dry weather. More than 25 million people face restrictions on water use, according to the Environment Agency, including millions covered by hosepipe bans affecting all South East Water and Thames Water customers.
Another temperature record could also be broken. Sunday was the 34th day in 2026 on which temperatures exceeded 30C somewhere in the UK, matching the record established in 1995.
Earlier heatwaves have already had significant consequences. Two record-breaking periods of heat in May and June were linked to more than 2,800 excess deaths. Two further heatwaves followed in July, while England and Wales experienced their driest July since records began in 1836.
Dry conditions have contributed to drought and wildfires across affected areas. The continued heat has also placed pressure on infrastructure, wildlife and people considered particularly vulnerable to high temperatures.
Across a wider region, the pattern has also been unusually warm. According to the EU’s Copernicus Earth observation programme, average temperatures across western Europe reached 21.61C during June and July, surpassing the previous record set in 2022. Globally, 2026 is currently just behind 2024 and 2025 among the hottest years on record. In the UK, forecasters are now focused on the middle of the week, when temperatures are expected to rise again and Thursday could become the hottest day of the current spell.
