The UK may experience its first 30C temperatures of the year within weeks as forecasters point to an increased likelihood of a warmer-than-average summer. The Met Office has also issued a three-month outlook suggesting a 40 per cent chance of a “hot” summer across the country.
Meteorologists say the combination of rising temperatures across Europe and developing climate patterns in the Pacific could influence conditions in the UK during the coming months. While unsettled weather is expected in the short term, warmer conditions may build into early summer.
The latest forecast comes as forecasters continue to monitor changes linked to El Niño, which is expected to develop during early summer. According to the Met Office, this climate driver can increase the likelihood of unsettled conditions in the UK during this time of year, although its overall influence remains limited in late spring.
Jim Dale, a meteorologist at British Weather Services, said the UK could again face extremely high temperatures later in the summer. Speaking about conditions in July and August, he said there was “a fair chance” of temperatures approaching 40C if heat from southern Europe moved northwards.
Met Office Outlook Points to Warmer Conditions Later in May
The Met Office forecast covering the period from 17 May to 26 May predicts a mixed start, with low pressure bringing periods of rain and showers to many areas. Some of the rainfall could be heavy, although drier intervals are also expected during the period. According to the Met Office, temperatures are likely to begin cooler than average before recovering later in the forecast window. The agency said conditions could become “rather warm” towards the end of the period, particularly in southern parts of the UK.
Its longer-range three-month outlook indicates a greater likelihood of warm conditions between May and July. The Met Office said that, in line with the broader warming climate, warmer outcomes are more likely than cooler ones over the next three months.
The agency also noted that an increased chance of warm conditions raises the possibility of heatwaves similar to those experienced in recent years. The outlook includes assessments of temperature, precipitation and wind speed compared with long-term averages, alongside comparisons with conditions observed during the last five years. Forecast documents released by the Met Office show that the outlook is intended to help contingency planners and public bodies assess seasonal risks and weather patterns.
Forecasters Monitoring El Niño and European Heat Patterns
Meteorologists outside the Met Office have also suggested that high temperatures could arrive sooner than expected. Some forecasters told GB News that the UK may be only “weeks away” from its first 30C temperatures of the summer period.
Jim Dale said that heatwaves affecting Spain and continental Europe could shift northwards and influence UK conditions. He added that heat and humidity may become increasingly significant factors during the summer months.
According to AccuWeather meteorologist Paul Pastelok, sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are changing rapidly. He said these developments could allow El Niño conditions to emerge as early as June.
Pastelok also pointed to “tremendous warming” in sub-surface water temperatures across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Scientists and forecasters closely monitor these changes because El Niño events can affect weather patterns globally, including rainfall and temperature trends. For now, the UK forecast remains mixed, with unsettled conditions expected to dominate initially before warmer and more settled weather potentially develops later in the month.
