The United States imports a significant share of its food and beverages, particularly products that depend on tropical growing regions. According to reporting by Newsweek, analysts are warning that disruptions linked to a strong El Niño could add strain to food markets that are already facing rising costs.
An El Niño is part of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a natural climate cycle that affects weather patterns around the world. During an El Niño event, weakened trade winds allow warm ocean water to shift eastward across the Pacific, altering rainfall and temperature patterns across multiple continents.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is an 82 percent chance that El Niño conditions will develop between May and July and a 96 percent chance that they will persist through the winter. NOAA also reported that subsurface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific have been increasing for six consecutive months, with widespread above-average warmth beneath the ocean surface.
Rice, Coffee, Cocoa, and Wheat among the Most Exposed Imports
Because El Niño can influence weather conditions across several agricultural regions simultaneously, experts say the effects are rarely confined to a single crop or country. David Warrick, senior vice president of strategy at Overhaul, told Newsweek that rice is the most immediate concern. He identified Thailand, Vietnam, and India as key exporters that could face drought conditions associated with El Niño.
Warrick also highlighted coffee, cocoa, palm oil, and sugar as commodities that are particularly sensitive to heat and drought. He said pressure on these products could affect grocery staples used by American consumers, including cooking oils, chocolate, packaged foods, and coffee.
According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), roughly 15 to 17 percent of U.S. food and beverage consumption comes from imports. Processed foods, beverages, and tropical products account for a large share of those imports, while Mexico, Canada, the European Union, and China are among the country’s leading agricultural trading partners.
Wheat is another area being closely watched. Scott Lehmann, vice president of operational risk management at Sphera, told Newsweek that Australia is entering what he described as a compromised planting season, with drought conditions and fertilizer shortages expected to affect production.
Experts Warn That Supply Disruptions Could Eventually Reach Consumers
Climate-related disruptions can affect both crop production and livestock systems. Newsweek reported that heat stress may reduce cattle feed intake and slow growth rates, while dairy production can also be affected by higher temperatures.
Dr. Andrew Coburn, founder and chairman of Risilience and chief scientist at the Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies, told Reuters that extreme scenarios could produce price shocks ranging from 10 percent to 50 percent across core commodities. He noted that climate-related impacts can reduce yields, lower milk production, and disrupt food systems in multiple ways.
Warrick said that if El Niño conditions persist through the summer, retail price increases could become visible within three to six months. He explained that perishable goods may be affected more quickly, while shelf-stable products may take longer to reflect supply pressures.
Lehmann agreed that price transmission often takes time, although he noted that current conditions differ from a typical cycle. He pointed to elevated fertilizer costs, higher freight rates, and lean inventories as factors that could reduce the food system’s ability to absorb disruptions before they reach consumers. According to Newsweek, both experts emphasized that simultaneous stress across several major exporting regions presents a broader challenge than isolated supply shortfalls.
