The full new UK state pension is expected to rise above £13,000 a year from April 2027 after official earnings figures showed annual total pay growth of 3.9%. If that figure determines the next triple-lock increase, the full rate would reach £250.70 a week, or £13,036.40 a year.
The change would also bring the pension above the current £12,570 Personal Allowance, renewing attention on how pension income will be treated for tax purposes. The final pension increase has not yet been confirmed because September’s inflation figure must still be considered under the triple-lock formula.
Wage Growth Puts the Full New State Pension Above £13,000
The state pension triple lock guarantees an annual increase based on whichever is highest: average earnings growth, inflation or 2.5%. For the earnings measure, the relevant figure is based on average wage growth between May and July.
According to the Office for National Statistics, annual growth in total earnings, including bonuses, was 3.9% in May to July 2026, down from 4.2% in the previous three-month period. Regular earnings excluding bonuses rose by 3.5%.
If the 3.9% earnings figure sets the pension increase, the full new state pension, available to people who reached state pension age after April 2016, would rise by £488 a year. Its weekly value would increase from £241.30 to £250.70, taking the annual payment to £13,036.40. The old basic state pension, applying to people who reached state pension age before April 2016, would rise to £192.10 a week. That equates to £9,989.20 a year, an increase of £374.40.
The wider labour market figures showed weaker conditions in some areas. The ONS recorded an unemployment rate of 4.9% in May to July, while the estimated number of vacancies fell to 702,000 in June to August. Payrolled employee numbers also declined over the latest comparable periods. BBC reporting noted that almost 13 million people receive the state pension in the UK. Pensioner groups have argued that older households continue to face pressure from living costs, while economists have raised questions about the long-term cost of the triple lock.
Tax Threshold Becomes a Central Issue for Pensioners
A full new state pension of £13,036.40 would sit above the current £12,570 Personal Allowance. That threshold has been frozen since 2021 and, according to Midweek Herald, is currently due to remain at the same level until April 2031.
The issue matters because state pension income is taxable. BBC said the government had recommitted to protecting pensioners whose only income is the state pension from having to pay small amounts of tax when their pension moves just above the allowance.
Pensions minister Torsten Bell said that pensioners who only just exceed the Personal Allowance would not face the administrative burden of paying small amounts of tax during this Parliament. He also said the Chancellor would set out further details at the Budget.
Separately, the Midweek Herald reported that campaign group Silver Voices is calling for the Personal Allowance for state pensioners to increase by at least £1,000 and to rise alongside future triple-lock increases.
For now, the exact April 2027 pension increase remains dependent on the triple-lock calculation. The 3.9% earnings figure establishes one of the three measures, while September’s inflation reading will determine whether earnings ultimately set the rate.
