Airfares across Europe could rise by as much as 20% over the next year, according to Ryanair boss Michael O’Leary, as airlines face sharply higher fuel costs. The warning comes as carriers adjust their schedules and reduce flights in response to soaring jet fuel prices.
Higher Fuel Costs Could Push Up Airfares
O’Leary said European airlines would have to pass a substantial part of their higher fuel costs on to passengers. He described the expected increase in fares as potentially the “biggest increase in airfares” in European history.
He also warned that a 20% increase might not be enough to compensate airlines for the rise in fuel expenses.
Jet Fuel Prices Have Surged
Airlines have been protected to some extent by fuel-hedging agreements, which allow carriers to lock in prices ahead of time. Those protections are now starting to expire, meaning airlines will have to purchase a larger share of their fuel at current market prices.
According to the figures cited by O’Leary, jet fuel prices have risen 113% to $192 a barrel since the beginning of 2026. Ryanair has limited price protection for around 85% of its expected fuel requirements for 2027.
O’Leary said many other European airlines were in a similar position.
Ryanair Cuts Winter Capacity
Ryanair has already reduced its winter schedule in response to higher fuel costs. The airline is expected to carry around two million fewer passengers during the financial year after cutting approximately 4% of its winter capacity.
The company estimates the reduction could lower its fuel bill by up to €100 million. The decision is notable for Ryanair, which has historically pursued passenger growth and additional market share.
Airlines Are Cutting Thousands Of Flights
Other European carriers are also reducing the number of flights available. EasyJet has announced a further 3,500 flight cuts, representing around 700,000 seats, after previously reducing its winter schedule.
The airline said the decision reflected fuel prices remaining higher than expected. Reducing capacity can also limit the number of available seats, which can put additional pressure on ticket prices when demand remains strong.
High Fares Could Continue Into 2028
O’Leary warned that passengers could face higher fares well beyond the immediate effects of the current fuel price surge. He said that even if the conflict in the Middle East ended immediately, it could take around a year for kerosene prices to return to normal levels.
As a result, he expects higher airfares to potentially continue into 2028, reports Telegraph. The precise size of future fare increases will depend on fuel prices, passenger demand, airline capacity and the extent to which carriers can absorb higher operating costs.
Aviation Industry Faces Wider Financial Pressure
The fuel price surge comes at a difficult time for the aviation sector. Industry body Iata warned in June that higher fuel costs could result in a $100 billion (£75 billion) financial hit for airlines during the year.
Some carriers have already experienced severe financial difficulties. US budget airline Spirit Airlines has collapsed, while Latvia’s AirBaltic and Spain’s Volotea are seeking restructuring under bankruptcy protection.
Ryanair Shares Fall After Warning
Ryanair shares fell by around 2% following O’Leary’s comments. The stock has declined around 25% this year, putting it on track for its weakest annual performance since 2018.
The share price reflects wider concerns about fuel costs, airline profitability and the prospect of weaker passenger demand if ticket prices rise sharply.
Passengers Could Face A More Expensive Year Of Travel
European travellers are facing a combination of higher fuel costs, reduced flight schedules and pressure on airline finances. If carriers pass a substantial portion of those costs on to passengers, airfares could rise considerably over the next 12 months.
O’Leary’s 20% warning is a projection rather than a confirmed industry-wide increase, and actual fares will vary between airlines, routes and travel periods.
