The delay means ministers will continue with measures already in progress while waiting for the findings of major reviews into disability benefits and support for young people outside work, education or training.
According to The i Paper, significant changes to welfare benefits are not expected until a new welfare bill is introduced, which is unlikely during the current parliamentary session. The earliest opportunity for legislation would be after the next King’s Speech, potentially in spring 2027.
Welfare Reforms Linked to Two Major Reviews
The planned legislation is expected to respond to two reviews examining the future direction of the welfare system. One is led by Sir Stephen Timms and focuses on disability benefits, including PIP and the health-related element of universal credit. The other is Alan Milburn’s review into young people who are not in employment, education or training.
The government has said the reviews are intended to examine how welfare support can better help people with health conditions and disabilities move towards employment while addressing the rising cost of benefits.
According to The i Paper, ministers are expected to continue with existing measures, including efforts to reduce fraud and error, changes affecting Motability spending, and tighter rules for some new health-related benefit claims.
The Timms Review has already found that PIP is “not fit for purpose” in its interim findings, although Sir Stephen Timms has said the review is not intended simply as a cost-cutting exercise. The benefit has faced increased scrutiny as the number of claims linked to mental health conditions has risen.
Accordint to reports, claims relating to conditions such as anxiety and depression have increased from around 700,000 in 2019 to around 1.5 million currently. PIP payments can reach up to £194 a week for eligible claimants, with annual inflation-linked increases due from next April.
Government Faces Pressure Over Welfare Spending Plans
The delay leaves Chancellor John Healey with fewer options if the government wants to find savings ahead of the October Budget. Ministers are facing pressure over public spending while also maintaining existing commitments, including increased defence spending.
According to The i Paper, welfare spending is forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility to rise from £332.9bn in 2025–26 to £406bn by 2030–31. The increase is expected to be driven largely by pension and health-related spending.
The state pension remains one of the largest areas of welfare expenditure, costing £146.1bn, although proposals affecting pension support have faced political difficulties because of pressure around the triple lock. The government has said it is looking at “refocusing” welfare spending rather than simply reducing benefits. Ministers are expected to focus on employment support, particularly for younger people.
Alan Milburn’s review is expected to examine how spending can be directed towards helping young people enter work. Reports have suggested possible changes to the way universal credit supports young claimants, including stronger expectations around engaging with employment services.
According to The i Paper, one proposal being considered would restrict access to some elements of universal credit for young people who do not take part in employment support activities. The government’s next steps will depend on the reviews’ recommendations and the timing of future legislation. For claimants, the delay provides more time before any changes are introduced, while leaving uncertainty over the final shape of welfare reform.
