There is an 80 per cent probability of a strong El Niño forming by late 2026, according to models produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The likelihood of an extreme “Super” El Niño, the most intense classification of the phenomenon, currently stands at between 20 and 25 per cent, according to the latest analysis.
Current forecasts from the US Climate Prediction Centre indicate that El Niño conditions will likely begin developing during the June to August period, with a 62 per cent chance of emergence. Those conditions are expected to continue through at least December 2026.
A Warming Event of Potentially Unprecedented Speed
Scientists classify a Super El Niño when sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern Pacific exceed the long-term average by more than 2.0 to 2.5 degrees Celsius. The phenomenon is officially declared when temperatures rise 0.5 degrees above normal, driven by unusually warm water accumulating in the eastern Pacific near the equator.
ECMWF analysis suggests this year’s event could develop at a pace potentially unmatched since modern monitoring began. Researchers attribute this rapid progression to exceptionally warm water beneath the surface in the western Pacific, combined with vigorous westerly winds that push accumulated heat upwards. Given that ocean temperatures already sit at record levels, surpassing readings from the same period last year, these compounding factors could produce a significant climatic event.
The warming effect of El Niño typically reaches the atmosphere with a delay of several months, meaning the full temperature impact of a late 2026 event would likely manifest the following year. Some modelling scenarios project global temperatures reaching 1.7 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels during that period, which could make 2027 rank among the warmest years ever documented.
What the Forecasts Mean for Britain and Europe
For Europe, the broader pattern points to warmer-than-typical conditions this summer, occasionally accompanied by heightened storm activity, according to ECMWF projections. Drier conditions are expected across northern Europe, while southern regions face above-average rainfall. Spain faces particular vulnerability to prolonged extreme heat during the summer months.
Britain and Ireland present a less predictable picture. Previous El Niño development summers in 1997, 2015, and 2023, delivered varied conditions, though each featured notable warm spells. Weather prediction models currently indicate above-average temperatures across the continent this summer, though the picture for the British Isles remains uncertain.
The phenomenon releases accumulated oceanic heat into the atmosphere, driving global temperatures higher on a broad scale. Previous Super El Niño episodes have consistently contributed to record-breaking heat, alongside severe droughts and flooding across different regions of the world. As monitoring continues through the spring and into summer, forecasters will be watching closely to see whether this year’s event follows the rapid trajectory currently projected by ECMWF and NOAA models.
