A powerful El Niño event forecast for later in 2026 could place additional pressure on global food production and supply chains, raising concerns about the resilience of food imports relied upon by the United Kingdom.
Researchers and weather experts say the combination of rising temperatures and heat stress affecting agricultural workers in key exporting countries may create challenges for the production of several staple commodities, including coffee, cocoa, tea, rice, and fruit.
The warning comes as forecasters increasingly point to the possibility of an unusually strong El Niño developing during the second half of the year. While the UK is not expected to experience the direct climatic impacts seen in tropical regions, specialists say disruptions affecting producing nations could have consequences for food availability and prices.
According to the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), developing countries supplied 13% of UK food imports in 2025, representing goods worth £8.9 billion.
Heat Stress and Agricultural Production Under Pressure
The ECIU reported that many of the countries supplying food to the UK are already experiencing significant impacts from rising temperatures. The organization identified India, South Africa, Peru, Egypt, Vietnam, Brazil, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Colombia, Ecuador, and Kenya among important exporters of products consumed in Britain. These imports include rice, grapes, lemons, oranges, nectarines, coffee, cocoa beans, bananas, and tea.
According to the ECIU’s latest analysis, farmers in the 15 largest developing-country suppliers to the UK lost an estimated 216 billion potential working hours in 2024 because of heat stress. The report said this was equivalent to nearly 49 working days per worker annually.
“The threat from climate change is growing, hitting the food crops themselves, but also the workers we rely on to produce them,” Gareth Redmond-King, head of international programme at the ECIU, said in comments published with the report.
The organization also noted that previous research found climate-related impacts had added around £360 per year to the average UK household food bill. It further stated that UK farmers have experienced three of the worst harvests on record within the last five years.
Forecasters Monitor a Potentially Powerful El Niño
Weather agencies and specialists are closely monitoring conditions in the Pacific Ocean as temperatures continue to rise. According to reports, several forecasters have suggested that the upcoming El Niño could rank among the strongest ever recorded, leading some observers to describe it as a “super-El Niño” or “Godzilla” event.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said there is an 80% probability that El Niño conditions will emerge between June and August 2026, with the likelihood increasing to 90% in the following months.
Weather expert Jim Dale, founder of British Weather Services, told the Mirror that disruptions could affect commodities and food supply chains linked to products such as bananas, coffee, sugar, tea, and cocoa. He said the broader consequences could extend across global food distribution networks.
The World Meteorological Organization also emphasized that El Niño’s effects reach well beyond the Pacific Ocean. According to Secretary-General Celeste Saulo, the phenomenon can influence agriculture, energy supplies, trade, water resources, supply chains, and livelihoods across multiple regions.
Responding to concerns over food security, a UK government spokesperson said the government remains committed to maintaining domestic food production, investing in agricultural technology, developing climate-resilient crops, and expanding water supplies through new reservoir construction. These measures, the spokesperson said, are intended to help safeguard food production in the years ahead.
