Petrol prices across the UK have dipped marginally after weeks of sharp increases linked to the conflict involving Iran and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts and financial experts, though, say the reduction offers little reassurance for motorists facing continued pressure at the pumps.
The average cost of petrol has fallen to 156.82p per litre from a peak of 158.17p recorded in April. According to figures cited by the Daily Mirror and Daily Express, prices remain well above the 131.71p per litre level seen before the outbreak of the conflict.
The decline comes as global oil markets react to developments in the Middle East. Brent Crude remained above $100 a barrel on Wednesday, significantly higher than the roughly $70 level recorded before tensions escalated. At the same time, uncertainty continues around shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz, a route responsible for a substantial share of the world’s oil supply.
Experts Warn Fuel Costs Could Remain Elevated
Financial analysts have cautioned that the recent fall in pump prices may prove temporary. According to Samuel Mather-Holgate, managing director and independent financial adviser at Mather and Murray Financial, motorists should not assume that prices will continue to drop in the coming weeks.
Speaking to the Daily Mirror, Mather-Holgate said the conflict was “nowhere near over” and warned that further escalation remained possible. He added that petrol prices reaching £2 per litre could not be ruled out if conditions deteriorate further.
The comments follow an announcement by US President Donald Trump that Washington would temporarily pause a planned operation to escort stranded vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump said the delay would allow time to assess whether a peace agreement with Iran could still be finalised.
Despite that announcement, analysts noted that energy markets remain volatile. Brent Crude prices have stayed above $100 a barrel, reflecting continued concerns about supply disruption and instability in the region.
According to the reports, fuel prices in the UK are reacting more slowly than wholesale oil costs because petrol stations respond to refined fuel prices, distribution costs and retailer margins rather than crude oil prices alone. That pattern is often described within the industry as the “rocket and feather” effect, where prices rise rapidly during periods of uncertainty but fall more gradually afterwards.
Strait of Hormuz Tensions Continue to Shape Oil Markets
Market observers said the situation around the Strait of Hormuz remains one of the key factors influencing fuel prices globally. The narrow shipping route carries roughly 20% of global oil supplies, making any disruption there significant for international markets.
Tony Redondo, founder of Cosmos Currency Exchange, said the slight reduction in UK petrol prices suggested traders believed the immediate risk of a prolonged blockade had eased somewhat. According to the Daily Express, Redondo said a return to prices close to pre-conflict levels was unlikely while Brent Crude remained above $100 a barrel.
He stated that most analysts expected petrol prices to stabilise around 150p per litre under current conditions. At the same time, he warned that any renewed escalation or tighter restrictions affecting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could push prices substantially higher again.
Redondo also noted that recent diplomatic developments had provided only limited relief to markets. He said traders were still effectively pricing in insurance against the possibility of sudden disruption to global oil supplies. For UK motorists, the result is a modest reduction in fuel prices that still leaves costs significantly above levels seen earlier this year.
