The UK population is set to witness an important growth in the next decade according to recent projections. This signifies a rise of approximately 6.6 million individuals, equivalent to a 9.9% increase, when compared to the estimated 67 million in mid-2021.
Factors Contributing to Anticipated Growth
The anticipated growth primarily results from long-term international net migration, which is the discrepancy between the number of individuals entering and exiting the country, contributing 6.1 million to the overall increase. The remaining portion arises from a higher number of births surpassing deaths.
It's important to note that these statistics are projections and not predictions or forecasts. They are based on existing and historical trends.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) noted that the actual future levels of migration and population may vary, influenced by policy changes and unpredictable shifts in migrant behaviour.
The newly projected data reveals that from mid-2021 to mid-2036, approximately 10.8 million people are expected to be born, 10.3 million to pass away, 13.7 million to relocate to the UK long-term, and 7.6 million to emigrate.
James Robards, the head of population and household projections at ONS, has pointed out that these new projections indicate a "probability of higher long-term international migration" compared to previous estimates.
“It is important to recognise that there is uncertainty in the provisional international migration estimates,” he emphasized. “Future migration will be affected by policy changes as well as the impact of as yet unknown migrant behavioural patterns in the future.”
Projected Changes in the UK's Population: Ageing and Accelerated Growth
According to the latest projections, the UK's population could reach 70 million by mid-2026, which is a decade earlier than the figures published in 2022, which had projected a date of mid-2036 for this milestone. Furthermore, the projections suggest that the population aged 85 and older in the UK could grow from 1.6 million (constituting 2.5% of the total population) to 2.6 million (3.5%) over the next 15 years.
The projections also indicate a significant shift in the demographic composition of the UK population towards older age groups. Over the next 15 years, the number of individuals aged 85 and above is expected to increase from 1.6 million, constituting 2.5% of the total population, to 2.6 million, representing 3.5% of the population.
This trend towards an ageing population is expected to continue. By 2029, individuals aged 75 and older may make up one in ten of the total population, and by 2037, this proportion is projected to rise to one in nine. Additionally, by 2037, individuals of pension age are expected to account for one in five of the total population.
It's worth noting that the overall projected population increase over the next 25 years is proportionally less than the growth observed in the past 25 years. From mid-1996 to mid-2021, the population grew by 8.9 million, which is equivalent to a 15.3% increase. However, from mid-2021 to mid-2046, it is projected to grow by 9.5 million, reflecting a 14.2% increase.