UK Economy Shows Modest Growth in Early 2024

Portrait of Lydia Amazouz, a young woman with dark hair tied back, wearing glasses and a striped blue and white shirt, against a solid coral background.
By Lydia Amazouz Published on 13 March 2024 18:06
National Flag of the United Kingdom with Two Pound Coins and A Yellow Upward Line Graph, Symbolising UK Economy Growth
UK Economy Shows Modest Growth in Early 2024 - © en.econostrum.info

Official data showed that the UK economy displayed signs of growth in January after experiencing a mild recession in the second quarter of 2023, offering prime minister Rishi Sunak a glimpse of relief ahead of this year's election.

The UK Economy Shows Signs of Growth Amid Recession Concerns

A rebound in retailing and house building allowed a 0.2% growth in the gross domestic product after it experienced a 0.1% decline in December, which aligns with economists' expectations.

"The economy picked up in January with strong growth in retail and wholesaling," Liz McKeown, a director at the Office for National Statistics, said. "Construction also performed well with house-builders having a good month, having been subdued for much of the last year."

Nevertheless, it is still too soon to tell whether the UK economy is officially out of recession. GDP fell by 0.3% in the last quarter of 2023 and by 0.1% in the previous one, matching the commonly accepted technical definition of recession in Europe.

Following its initial rebound from the COVID-19 pandemic, Britain's economy has been extremely slow due to rising energy import costs as a result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and, lately, the high interest rates established by the Bank of England.

However, with inflation expected to fall to its 2% target soon after peaking at double digits in much of the previous year, consumer spending pressures are beginning to ease, and the Bank of England is starting to evaluate when to lower interest rates.

The announcement of the GDP data caused sterling to weaken as opposed to the US dollar and the euro, and investors increased their bets on a rate drop in June, despite the fact that the initial drop is not fully priced in until August.

Political Friction Impacts UK Economy's Recovery

The future Finance Minister for the opposition Labour Party, Rachel Reeves, claimed that the Conservatives led by Sunak and his predecessors had overseen "14 years of economic decline" and that they were responsible for the last recession.
With an election anticipated in the latter part of this year, Labour is currently leading the Conservatives by a significant margin in polling. Some surveys indicate that people now trust the opposition party more than the Conservatives to manage the UK economy.
Last week, the Office for Budget Responsibilities (OBR) expected a 0.8% expansion in 2024, which is higher than the Bank of England's 0.25% growth estimate made in February.
Business surveys indicated a surge in purchasing managers index data, reaching a nine-month high the previous month.
ONS's latest data for January displayed the greatest increase in retail sales since the lifting of COVID limits in back in 2021.
According to figures released on Wednesday, the frequently erratic construction output increased by 1.1% in January, marking the largest monthly increase since June. The increase was driven mostly by a 2.6% increase in private-sector house construction, which had been hampered by high lending rates.
According to Ruth Gregory, Capital Economics' deputy chief UK economist, the statistics might not have a significant impact on the BoE's decision.
"A 0.1% quarter-on-quarter rise in Q1 would match the Bank's forecast and with domestic inflationary pressures fading, we think a rate cut this summer - perhaps in June - is still the most likely outcome," Gregory emphasized.

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