Parents in the US are entering the new academic year with added financial pressure as import tariffs start to affect consumer prices. Families are now budgeting an average of $874.68, with early signs indicating this year’s school supplies could cost more than ever.
The National Retail Federation (NRF) reports that parents are beginning their shopping earlier, anticipating higher costs. Meanwhile, retail analysts say the price hikes linked to Donald Trump’s renewed tariff strategy are beginning to register in inflation data.
As Washington’s trade stance with China remains unresolved, families preparing for the return to school find themselves at the sharp end of a wider economic policy. Inflationary pressure linked to tariffs is expected to continue building, even as some retailers attempt to cushion the blow with short-term price freezes.
Retailers Under Pressure as Tariffs Reshape Back-To-School Market
With Trump’s tariffs on a wide range of Chinese imports now in effect since early August, the impact is being felt in stores across the country. According to the NRF, total back-to-school spending for families with children in kindergarten through 12th grade is expected to reach $39.4 billion, the second highest on record.
The retail sector is attempting to navigate the situation with a mixture of strategies. Target, one of the largest back-to-school retailers, announced it would hold prices steady on 20 essential school items, reflecting concerns over consumer loyalty during a time of economic uncertainty.
Yet many economists say these strategies may only offer temporary relief. “There’s a lot happening behind the scenes, like importers trying to renegotiate with their foreign suppliers, they’re trying to get their foreign suppliers to absorb some of the costs, they’re trying to absorb costs themselves,” said Sarah Dickerson, a research economist at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.” said Sarah Dickerson, a research economist at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
In a recent report, Goldman Sachs found that within four months of a tariff being introduced, 67% of the additional cost is passed on to consumers. The initial figures show 36% of the cost is typically passed through after three months, suggesting that families will face growing prices as the school year progresses.
Inflation and Consumer Behaviour Responding to Tariff Effects
The Federal Reserve has started to register the tariff-related price increases in national inflation figures. Speaking in July, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that tariffs “are starting to show up in consumer prices,” and indicated more increases could follow.
Retailers are seeing shifts in consumer behaviour as a result. According to the NRF, 12% more parents began their school shopping earlier this year than in 2024, likely in anticipation of rising costs. A full 72% of surveyed parents expect prices to be higher overall.
While the White House maintains that tariffs are a strategic tool to bring manufacturing back to the US or to gain leverage in trade negotiations, families are already bearing the short-term financial consequences. Dickerson advises families to be proactive: “Those individual prices are going to vary, which is why it makes sense, if you’re a parent, to shop around a bit and see what the different prices are out there,”
