London's population reaches new record heights amid surging migration rates and a reversal of the pandemic's 'race for space'.
London Population on the Rise amid Surging Migration Levels
According to a recent investigation directed by a Centre of Cities' think tank, the capital's population exceeded its pre-pandemic era apex of 10.1 million people. The concerning research results highlight the impact of the surging population on London's already-groaning infrastructure and services.
The city inhabitants fled London during the pandemic in attempts to find accommodations offering better living conditions away from the buzzing capital.
This led the city's population to fall by 75,500 in the period stretching from mid-2019 to mid-2021, resulting in a 7% decline, or what equals the population of a town the size of Tunbridge Wells.
Nevertheless, this trend has now reversed since 66,000 people moved to the capital in 2022 as international migration recovered.
While data for 2023 has yet to be published, the think tank stated that London's population would have to increase by 9,000 people in order to reach new records. Consequently, the population “is now almost certainly higher than its pre-pandemic peak," the Centre for Cities declared.
According to the report, the majority of the increase is explained by the surge in international migration that took place over the past two years.
Net migration to the capital from abroad remained active during the COVID-19 pandemic, as 38,170 reached London in 2019–20 and 73,660 in 2021.
This follows the Office of National Statistics' expectations of net migration driving the UK population to exceed 70 million by 2026, eleven years earlier than anticipated.
Impacts of London's Rapid Population Growth on Infrastructure and Services
The rapid growth of London's population is fuelling concerns about the imminent consequences that mass migration has on the capital's already creaking public services and infrastructure.
Paul Swinney, director of policy and research at the Centre for Cities, declared that more house building was required to relieve a crisis that was “evident long before COVID.”.
The expanding population may also be problematic for other public services, such as the NHS.
Recent research directed by the Evening Standard found that more than 50% of the patients at the London North West University Healthcare Trust, which is responsible for operating four hospitals in the capital, were obliged to endure a long waiting period of 18 weeks just to get an operation.
Andrew Carter, chief executive of the Centre for Cities, remarked: “London’s infrastructure is creaking under the weight of its population.
“Policymakers have to shake off any assumption that population changes mean questions over the housing shortage and infrastructure will solve themselves. Nor will smaller, less affluent places see huge influxes of professional workers with greater spending power.
“There are big decisions to make like continuing to invest in the public transport network, for example the Bakerloo Line extension and Crossrail 2, so that people can get around.”
Concerns about the influence of the surging migration rates in London implicate not only the capital but the country as a whole. London is the epicentre of UK economic growth, and Mr. Carter warned: “Delays to big infrastructure projects and housing delivery will constrain London’s potential.”
According to forecasts from Cambridge Econometrics, the capital's percentage of UK production is expected to freeze at 26% by the end of the decade. While its share of overall UK employment is also projected to be 18.5%.
Besides higher migration, London's population growth is said to be supported by the remarkable decrease in working from home.
Mr. Swinney highlighted: “We don’t know if hybrid working is here to stay, nor how long before the numbers of commuters coming into the city exceed the numbers we saw prior to COVID. But we do know that people have returned for at least some of the week, and numbers are growing.”