Amid the Trump administration’s optimism, economists are increasingly concerned about several signs pointing to a potential economic downturn. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Consumer confidence is a crucial gauge of economic health, influencing over two-thirds of U.S. GDP. A drop in optimism about the economy typically leads to lower consumer spending. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index saw a 7.2-point drop between February and March, marking its lowest level since January 2021. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Additionally, the Expectations Index<\/a>, which tracks short-term economic forecasts, fell to 65.2, its lowest level in 12 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Similarly, the University of Michigan<\/a>\u2019s Consumer Sentiment Index showed a sharp decline, with sentiment falling over 15 percent from February. Although some economists like Zandi<\/strong> argue that the drop is not yet a clear recession signal, it indicates a worrying trend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Growing business uncertainty, especially among small businesses, signals potential economic trouble. The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB<\/a>) reported a rise in its Uncertainty Index, which reached 104 in February, its second-highest reading since 1973.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Trade Policy Uncertainty Index has surged to record levels, fueled by the growing list of tariffs under the Trump administration. These tariffs, particularly the 10% tariff hikes on Chinese goods and additional tariffs on sectors like steel, have contributed to significant volatility. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Diane Swonk<\/a>, Chief Economist at KPMG, warned that the current range of tariffs has reached levels not seen since the 1930s, increasing instability in U.S. trade relations and economic planning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Similarly, the Conference Board found that inflation expectations<\/a> for the next 12 months climbed to 6.2%<\/strong>, driven by concerns over high prices for everyday goods, including eggs. A survey by Allianz Life revealed that 71% of Americans expect inflation to worsen, up from 60% in the previous quarter.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"