{"id":119452,"date":"2026-04-19T14:05:00","date_gmt":"2026-04-19T13:05:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.econostrum.info\/uk\/?p=119452"},"modified":"2026-04-19T13:58:25","modified_gmt":"2026-04-19T12:58:25","slug":"el-nino-is-coming-record-books","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/en.econostrum.info\/uk\/el-nino-is-coming-record-books\/","title":{"rendered":"El Ni\u00f1o Is Coming, and Scientists Say This One Could Rewrite the Record Books"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>There is an 80 per cent probability of a strong<strong> El Ni\u00f1o<\/strong> forming by late 2026, according to models produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The likelihood of an extreme &#8220;Super&#8221; El Ni\u00f1o, the most intense classification of the phenomenon, currently stands at between 20 and 25 per cent, according to the latest analysis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Current forecasts from the US Climate Prediction Centre indicate that El Ni\u00f1o conditions will likely begin developing during the June to August period, with a 62 per cent chance of emergence. Those conditions are expected to continue through at least December 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>A Warming Event of Potentially Unprecedented Speed<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Scientists classify a Super El Ni\u00f1o when sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern Pacific exceed the long-term average by more than 2.0 to 2.5 degrees Celsius. The phenomenon is officially declared when temperatures rise 0.5 degrees above normal, driven by unusually warm water accumulating in the eastern Pacific near the equator.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ecmwf.int\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ECMWF <\/a>analysis suggests this year&#8217;s event could develop at a pace potentially unmatched since modern monitoring began. Researchers attribute this rapid progression to exceptionally warm water beneath the surface in the western Pacific, combined with vigorous westerly winds that push accumulated heat upwards. Given that ocean temperatures already sit at <strong>record levels<\/strong>, surpassing readings from the same period last year, these compounding factors could produce a significant climatic event.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The warming effect of El Ni\u00f1o typically reaches the atmosphere with a delay of several months, meaning the full temperature impact of a late 2026 event would likely manifest the following year. Some modelling scenarios project global temperatures reaching <strong>1.7 degrees<\/strong> Celsius above pre-industrial levels during that period, which could make 2027 rank among the warmest years ever documented.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">In this week&#39;s Deep Dive, Alex Deakin covers Typhoon <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Sinlaku?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">#Sinlaku<\/a>, \u2018super\u2019 El Ni\u00f1o, and the April weather for the UK.<br><br>Watch and listen to our in-depth forecast On YouTube and Spotify \ud83d\udc47<br><br>\ud83d\udd17 YouTube<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Mu5AHOFErq\">https:\/\/t.co\/Mu5AHOFErq<\/a><br>\ud83d\udd17 Spotify<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/ucIBDJLcBs\">https:\/\/t.co\/ucIBDJLcBs<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/XY7RpVWKc0\">pic.twitter.com\/XY7RpVWKc0<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Met Office (@metoffice) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/metoffice\/status\/2044083066822439100?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">April 14, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>What the Forecasts Mean for Britain and Europe<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>For Europe, the broader pattern points to warmer-than-typical conditions this summer, occasionally accompanied by heightened storm activity, according to <strong>ECMWF projections<\/strong>. Drier conditions are expected across northern Europe, while southern regions face above-average rainfall. Spain faces particular vulnerability to prolonged extreme heat during the summer months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Britain and Ireland present a less predictable picture. Previous El Ni\u00f1o development summers in 1997, 2015, and 2023, delivered varied conditions, though each featured notable warm spells. Weather prediction models currently indicate above-average <a href=\"https:\/\/en.econostrum.info\/uk\/heavy-snow-to-sweep-uk-14c\/\" data-type=\"post\" data-id=\"116765\">temperatures <\/a>across the continent this summer, though the picture for the British Isles remains uncertain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The phenomenon releases accumulated oceanic heat into the atmosphere, driving global temperatures higher on a broad scale. Previous Super El Ni\u00f1o episodes have consistently contributed to <strong>record-breaking heat<\/strong>, alongside severe droughts and flooding across different regions of the world. As monitoring continues through the spring and into summer, forecasters will be watching closely to see whether this year&#8217;s event follows the rapid trajectory currently projected by ECMWF and NOAA models.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Climate models point to an extraordinary oceanic warming event that could push global temperatures to record levels, with Europe bracing for above-average heat and disrupted rainfall patterns.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":119454,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[20],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-119452","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-weather","generate-columns","tablet-grid-50","mobile-grid-100","grid-parent","grid-33","no-featured-image-padding"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/en.econostrum.info\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/119452","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/en.econostrum.info\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/en.econostrum.info\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/en.econostrum.info\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/en.econostrum.info\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=119452"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/en.econostrum.info\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/119452\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":119455,"href":"https:\/\/en.econostrum.info\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/119452\/revisions\/119455"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/en.econostrum.info\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/119454"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/en.econostrum.info\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=119452"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/en.econostrum.info\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=119452"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/en.econostrum.info\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=119452"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}