While many regions will see warmer-than-usual temperatures, the early weeks of November will still carry the familiar hallmarks of autumn, frequent showers, gusty winds and cloud cover. The developing weather pattern follows a particularly turbulent start to the month, with rain and strong winds already sweeping across much of the UK.
Warmer Than Average Temperatures Set to Continue
According to Met Office meteorologist Gregory Dewhurst, daily maximum temperatures could reach 14–17°C by early next week, notably warmer than the seasonal average. “Come Monday, maximum temperatures will be between 14 and 15C, maybe even 17C, so a good few degrees above average.” Dewhurst said.
This unseasonably warm spell is expected to persist into mid-November, driven by south-westerly air masses and a shift in the jet stream. The temperature increase will mostly be accompanied by cloudy skies and patchy rain, with clearer periods expected to become more frequent later in the month.
Despite a brief spell of snow on high ground over the weekend, no further wintry conditions are expected. Dewhurst clarified that while snow may reach the tops of Scottish mountains, “there is no risk of snow for the majority of the UK this month.” The forecast marks a continuation of the UK’s recent trend toward milder autumns, consistent with broader patterns observed over recent years.
As of the beginning of the month, weather maps have shown gusts reaching 53 mph in parts of Scotland, with 30 mph winds recorded along the south coast of England. These values, while not unusual for this time of year, have contributed to a sense of unsettled weather that may linger over the coming days.
Wet and Windy Conditions Continue Before High Pressure Builds
The weekend of 1–2 November has already brought a mix of heavy showers and brief sunny spells, particularly across Scotland and northern England. According to the Met Office, Saturday morning began with wet conditions spreading north-eastward, eventually becoming confined to the Northern Isles.
For the remainder of the UK, the weekend featured “a more traditional mix of sunny spells and showers,” with heavier downpours concentrated in western and southern regions. Some of these showers were accompanied by thunder, hail and very gusty winds, consistent with the dynamic nature of autumnal weather fronts moving across the Atlantic.
As the month progresses, current models suggest a gradual stabilisation of weather patterns. The Met Office notes that high pressure may begin to build around mid-November, leading to drier conditions and calmer winds in the latter half of the month.
Regarding international weather systems, Hurricane Melissa, which recently made landfall in Jamaica as a category five hurricane, will have “minimal impact” on UK weather. Dewhurst explained that Melissa would not track toward the UK but might contribute marginally to atmospheric instability over the Atlantic. Looking ahead, the Met Office expects the UK to experience a typically changeable but generally milder November, with the current signals pointing to increased dry spells and settled conditions in the coming weeks.
