As Christmas approaches, the British Retail Consortium (BRC) and market researchers NIQ report that inflation eased in November, offering a brief respite to consumers after months of soaring prices. But the situation remains fragile, and experts are warning that inflationary pressures could surge again soon.
Price Inflation Slows in November Amid Black Friday Discounts
The easing of shop price inflation in November marks a slight improvement for UK consumers. According to the BRC, overall shop prices increased by just 0.6% compared to November 2024, down from 1% in October. Food inflation also decelerated, dropping from 3.7% to 3% month-on-month, largely due to Black Friday deals and widespread promotions. This shift is particularly noticeable in everyday staples like dairy, fruit, bread, and cereals, where price rises slowed, making it more affordable for shoppers during the busy pre-Christmas period.
Helen Dickinson, BRC’s Chief Executive, explained that the early start to Black Friday discounts has sparked competition among retailers, pushing prices down where possible. “With Budget uncertainty behind us, retailers are hoping that consumer confidence rebounds in this crucial trading period and they will continue doing everything they can to keep prices down and help customers’ money go further this Christmas. she said.
This price reduction is welcome news for those gearing up for the festive season, and many retailers are optimistic that it will encourage spending during this critical time. However, while November’s slowdown provides a temporary relief, inflation pressures are still far from eliminated.
Future Challenges: Employment Costs and Rising Prices
Despite the current easing, inflation remains a looming concern, particularly in the food sector. While promotions have softened prices in many categories, oils, fats, meat, and fish continue to see significant price hikes. According to Mike Watkins, head of retailer and business insight at NIQ, “It’s good news for shoppers that price increases are slowing, but inflationary pressures still remain, in particular within food.”
Looking ahead, one of the key factors driving potential price increases in 2025 is the expected rise in employment costs. As wage demands increase and businesses face higher overheads, these additional costs are likely to be passed onto consumers, leading to higher prices across multiple sectors.
Helen Dickinson from the BRC warns that this could significantly impact consumer confidence, which remains fragile after the turbulence of recent months. “Headwinds in the new year include rising employment costs, which are likely to filter through to prices. This could shake already weak consumer confidence and present further challenges for consumers in the year ahead,” she said.
Retailers, while still competing for shoppers’ attention, will need to strike a delicate balance in 2025. The competitiveness of the UK retail market could encourage brands to keep price hikes as low as possible, but the underlying inflationary pressures may make it difficult to do so for long. As the year progresses, this could create a challenging environment for both consumers and businesses alike.
