The figures, based on analysis by Savills using data from Oxford Economics and Nationwide, suggest the market is entering a stabilisation phase, marked by low early growth and gradual acceleration from 2027 onwards. Underlying economic factors, including inflation trends, labour market stability and monetary policy, are expected to shape this trajectory.
Subdued Short-Term Gains Amid Economic Uncertainty
House price growth across the UK has slowed significantly in recent months. According to Savills, average property values are set to rise by just 1% in 2025 and 2% in 2026, reflecting buyer caution in the face of high mortgage rates and persistent inflation.
“Higher interest and mortgage rates next year, as well as a weaker labour market, with a slight rise in unemployment and slowing wage growth, are likely to constrain price growth.” noted Lucian Cook, head of residential research at Savills. While base interest rates have started to come down, the pace of cuts has been slower than previously forecast, as inflation remains around 3.8%.
This economic backdrop, combined with the aftermath of changes to stamp duty and broader fiscal policy uncertainty ahead of the upcoming Budget, is keeping many potential buyers on the sidelines. The market also continues to feel the effects of the post-pandemic boom and subsequent correction, with stock levels remaining relatively high.
Although some short-term indicators, such as sales data from Rightmove and Zoopla, suggest increased buyer activity in mid-2025, Savills emphasises that the overall market remains finely balanced. House price growth is not expected to return in real terms (adjusted for inflation) until 2028.
Strongest Growth Forecast in Northern and Devolved Regions
Over the full five-year period, price growth is expected to diverge significantly by region. London, traditionally the UK’s property powerhouse, is projected to lag behind with growth of just 13.6% by 2030. In contrast, more affordable areas in the North and devolved nations are forecast to outperform the national average.
According to Savills, Yorkshire and the Humber, the North East, and Scotland are each expected to see house prices rise by 28.8%, the strongest regional gains. Close behind are Wales and the North West, both forecast to see increases of 27.6%, while the West Midlands and East Midlands are also expected to exceed the UK average with growth of 24.6% and 24% respectively.
This regional shift reflects ongoing structural changes in the UK housing market, where affordability constraints in the South have capped growth potential. “Since 2016, we’ve been in the second half of the cycle, where the more affordable regions in the North and Scotland outperform the UK average,” explained Dan Hill, research analyst at Savills.
By the end of the decade, the price gap between regions is expected to narrow. Property values in the North West, for example, are projected to sit just 15% below the UK average, down from nearly 30% a decade earlier. Meanwhile, London’s premium is set to shrink from 70% in 2017 to 33% by 2030.
Despite this trend, growth remains contingent on a stable macroeconomic environment. If interest rates fall as expected, down to 2.5% by 2029, and wage growth continues steadily, mortgage affordability could improve, encouraging more buyers back into the market. For now, though, caution remains the defining sentiment.
