Despite predictions of a possible downturn in activity, this growth symbolises the market’s tenacity in the face of affordability issues, high borrowing costs, and general economic uncertainty. It also marks the fourth consecutive month of price increases.
Nationwide : Steady Growth Across Regions and Property Types
Nationwide’s analysis highlights broad-based regional growth, though disparities persist. Northern Ireland recorded the highest annual price rise at 7.1%, followed by the North East and North West of England, with increases of 5.9% and 5.5%, respectively. In contrast, Southern England, including London, experienced more modest gains, with prices rising by an average of 2.2%.
Chief economist Robert Gardner noted that the market’s resilience was underpinned by a steady increase in mortgage approvals and a strong demand for terraced houses, which saw the largest year-on-year price rise among property types, at 4.4%. Flats also experienced recovery, growing by 4%, while detached and semi-detached homes posted gains of 3.2% and 3.4%, respectively.
Gardner emphasised the ongoing challenge of affordability, stating, “At the start of the year, house prices remained high relative to average earnings, which meant that the deposit hurdle remained high for prospective first-time buyers. This is a challenge that had been made worse by record rates of rental growth in recent years, which has hampered the ability of many in the private rented sector to save.”
Impact of Stamp Duty Changes and Future Outlook
It is anticipated that the government’s proposed adjustments to stamp duty thresholds, which are scheduled to go into effect in April 2025, may cause market instability. The tax-free threshold will drop from £425,000 to £300,000 for first-time purchasers, while the general threshold will return to £125,000 from the present £250,000.
Experts predict a surge in transactions in early 2025 as buyers rush to complete purchases ahead of the changes. Gardner warned, “We expect this pattern of sales progressing slowly to exchange with little or no renegotiation or fall through to continue, with first-time buyers desperately trying to take advantage of the stamp duty concession before the beginning of April.” The adjustment may obscure the underlying strength of the housing market in the coming months.
Going forward, Nationwide anticipates that affordability restraints will progressively lessen as interest rates begin to stabilize and wage growth surpasses rises in home prices. However, many homeowners and potential buyers continue to experience financial strains because mortgage rates are still high when compared to pre-pandemic levels.
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