Over the next ten years, the UK’s population is expected to grow significantly by around five million, mostly due to net migration. This adjustment occurs as it is anticipated that natural population fluctuations like births and deaths will not significantly affect growth overall.
The data, which were made public by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), underscore important demographic and economic issues facing the country, such as strains on infrastructure, public services, and the need to balance an aging population with a declining labor force.
Migration Remains the Key Driver of Population Growth
The ONS predicts that the UK’s population will increase from 67.6 million in mid-2022 to 72.5 million by mid-2032. Over the course of ten years, net migration is expected to account for 4.9 million of this rise. According to this forecast, yearly migration levels will stabilize at about 340,000 starting in 2028, which is less than the current numbers but still significant.
The balance between births and deaths, or the natural change in population, is anticipated to stay constant at roughly 6.8 million for the same time period. Even while birth rates may somewhat rise, an aging population will cause death rates to grow in tandem, maintaining a flat natural population change.
These trends place England as the fastest-growing nation in the UK, with its population forecast to rise by 7.8% by 2032. Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland are expected to see slower growth rates of 5.9%, 4.4%, and 2.1%, respectively.
Ageing Population Adds to Economic Challenges
The number of persons over 85 is expected to nearly treble to 3.3 million by 2047, making the UK’s aging population a serious concern. The aging of the baby boomer generation and rising life expectancy are the main causes of this demographic change, which presents serious problems for public budgets and the sustainability of the workforce.
Karl Williams, Research Director at the Centre for Policy Studies, highlighted the economic implications of these trends: “Even the massive levels of net migration do very little to improve the long-term picture, with the ratio of pensioners to working age taxpayers growing all the time. The Chancellor needs to focus on making the economy more productive if we are to support an older population without burdening younger workers with even more tax increases.” He also warned that even high levels of net migration offer limited long-term relief, as migrants themselves age and require support.
Some industries, like social care, already rely significantly on foreign labor. 25% of adult social workers are foreign nationals, with considerably greater numbers in direct care responsibilities, according to a recent research by the Work Rights Centre.
