The Met Office has released new guidance ahead of the upcoming October half-term, highlighting regional contrasts expected across the UK. Forecasts indicate a broad difference in conditions between northern and southern areas, shaped by shifting pressure systems and air masses moving over the country.
The early part of the break is likely to be defined by colder air from the north and varying rainfall patterns. Temperature trends, wind exposure, and precipitation levels will vary by region, making short-term planning more complex. Full details for the forecast period, including daily outlooks and temperature guidance, are now available from national weather services.
Arctic Air From The Ocean To Bring Sharp Drop In Temperatures
A surge of cooler air from the Arctic Ocean is expected to descend across the UK starting Saturday, significantly lowering temperatures across the country. According to the Met Office, this influx will result in a marked drop in daytime highs, with London forecast to reach just 12°C (54°F) — well below the seasonal average for late October.
By comparison, areas in Scotland and the North West may not even climb above 10°C (50°F), especially where cloud and rain are present.
This cold snap is being driven by a strengthening area of high pressure over the North Atlantic, which is helping to funnel colder polar air down into the UK. The south and east are expected to stay largely dry but will feel chilly under clear skies.
In contrast, low-pressure systems will dominate the north, bringing widespread rainfall, particularly over higher ground in the North West, where showers could persist across several days.
October 28 To November 6: Rain In The North, Dry Spells In The South
The period from Tuesday, October 28, to Thursday, November 6, will be characterized by an increasingly changeable setup. The Met Office reports that “bands of rain from the Atlantic [will move] across the country at times”, with the wettest and windiest conditions most likely across the northwest.
Regions such as Cumbria, Lancashire, and Western Scotland are expected to bear the brunt of the weather systems, while southern and eastern areas could benefit from extended drier interludes. High pressure may persist over the southeast, acting as a shield against the worst of the wet weather.
Still, uncertainty remains about the exact timing and extent of these drier conditions. The Met Office notes that around the turn of the month, wet and windy weather could spread further across the country.
“It is somewhat uncertain when this will occur,” the agency said,
“with high pressure attempting to persist across the southeast maintaining more settled conditions here.“
As The Mirror also reported, forecasters are watching this transition point closely, as it may bring a brief mild spell, particularly in the south.
November 7 To November 21: Wet Spells Continue, But More Balance Possible
Looking ahead to the second half of the forecast period, from Friday, November 7, to Friday, November 21, unsettled conditions will likely continue. The Met Office indicates:
“Showers or longer spells of rain [are expected] across all areas at times along with spells of strong winds.“
Still, there’s potential for some more settled spells, especially towards mid-November. The forecasters caution that the outlook remains “reasonably balanced”, meaning it’s currently difficult to determine whether dry or wet conditions will dominate in the second half of the month.
On a more positive note, temperatures during this period are expected to hover “around or above average”, and any colder phases between systems should be short-lived. This could offer short windows for outdoor activities or travel, although these breaks may be limited in duration.
