With new sellers flooding the market and asking prices rising sharply, the UK housing market has seen a noticeable uptick in activity as 2025 gets underway. The industry exhibits resilience and optimism in face of persistent uncertainty around interest rates and tax reforms.
This spike in activity occurs as both buyers and sellers feel more confident due to declining inflation and stable borrowing rates. However, there are still issues, and the market’s future course is probably going to be impacted by affordability limitations and impending stamp duty changes.
Housing Market : Record Start for New Sellers and Price Growth
According to Rightmove, the number of homes for sale has increased by 11% in the real estate market since the same time last year. With new sellers hoping to profit from the customarily strong January market, this is the busiest start to the year since statistics have been kept.
Accompanying this surge in listings, the average asking price of a property rose by 1.7%, or £5,992, this month, reaching £366,189. This is the largest January price increase since 2020. Colleen Babcock, a property expert at Rightmove, noted that while the growth is encouraging, heightened competition among sellers could temper price gains in the months ahead.
Despite this uptick, average house prices remain nearly £9,000 below the peak recorded in May 2024, reflecting ongoing affordability pressures. The average number of homes listed per estate agency branch also reached its highest level for January in a decade, underscoring the intensity of market competition.
Challenges Loom Amid Interest Rate and Tax Changes
While the market appears strong, potential headwinds could affect momentum. Mortgage rates, though slightly improved, remain relatively high. The average five-year fixed-rate mortgage stands at 4.75%, while two-year fixed rates hover at 4.97%. Such levels continue to challenge buyers, particularly those seeking affordability.
Adding to this, changes to stamp duty effective from 1 April are expected to impact purchasing dynamics. While first-time buyers of properties under £300,000 will largely remain unaffected, increased tax burdens on more expensive homes could deter activity in higher-value areas. Industry analysts have called for additional support for first-time buyers to offset these potential challenges.
Economic factors, including falling inflation—down to 2.5% in November—offer some optimism for interest rate cuts later this year. However, as Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank, warns, “Demand is likely to come under pressure in coming months as the impact of higher borrowing costs feeds through to mortgages. In addition to the pace of Bank of England rate cuts, what happens on bond markets in the early weeks of Donald Trump’s presidency will have a fairly direct bearing on UK house prices this year.”
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