According to recent research by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF), Scotland is on course to drastically reduce child poverty, defying the trend of rising rates throughout the United Kingdom. By 2029, Scotland’s child poverty rate is expected to fall to 21.8%, whilst England, Wales, and Northern Ireland are expected to see higher rates.
The impact of welfare measures unique to Scotland, like the Scottish Child Payment and the anticipated reduction of the two-child benefit cap starting in 2026, is highlighted in JRF’s analysis. Campaigners are calling for governments to work together to solve the issue of child poverty in other regions of the UK, where it is still stagnating or increasing.
Scotland’s Policies Drive a Decline in Child Poverty
Scotland’s welfare policies have been credited with reversing the UK-wide trend of rising child poverty, according to the JRF’s latest annual report. Without further policy changes, the country is projected to maintain a significantly lower rate than the rest of the UK, widening the gap from seven percentage points below the national average to ten points lower by 2029.
Key to this progress are Scottish Government policies, including the Scottish Child Payment, a benefit introduced in 2021 to support low-income families, and the decision to scrap the two-child limit on benefits for Scottish families from 2026. These measures directly increase household income for struggling families, helping reduce the proportion of children living in poverty.
JRF analysis suggests that if the rest of the UK followed Scotland’s example, around 800,000 fewer children would face hardship. However, no English region is forecast to see a drop in rates between 2024 and 2029, with five regions expected to see increases. Campaigners argue that Scotland’s policies provide a model for tackling the issue across the UK.
Calls for Coordinated UK-Wide Action on Poverty
While Scotland’s progress is notable, child poverty remains a significant issue, with one in five Scottish children still expected to live in poverty by 2029. Fiona Steel, national director at Action for Children Scotland, acknowledged Scotland’s progress but warned that current measures are not enough.
“Through the Scottish Child Payment and plans to mitigate the two-child cap limit, Action for Children acknowledges the Scottish Government has taken big steps into the journey to end child poverty. However, we now need a giant leap, especially if Scotland is to meet its own legal child poverty targets.” Steel said. She called for a coordinated effort between the UK, Scottish, and local governments, arguing that families should benefit from a ‘triple lock’ of support rather than facing disjointed policies.
The UK Government, meanwhile, has pointed to its own initiatives aimed at tackling poverty through economic growth, increases in the minimum wage, and reforms to Universal Credit. Labour’s Kirsty McNeill, a minister in the Scotland Office, stated that the government’s Child Poverty Task Force would seek “lasting reductions to child poverty.”
However, JRF’s findings suggest economic growth alone will not be sufficient. Their analysis warns that if economic gains disproportionately benefit higher-income households, child poverty rates could continue to rise. Campaigners continue to press for targeted policies to ensure children across the UK are lifted out of poverty, rather than relying on broader economic measures.
