The UK’s population is predicted to grow by about five million people over the next ten years, primarily due to net migration. Recent projections from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) suggest that by 2032, Britain’s population might rise by 7.3% from its current size to 72.5 million.
The figures indicate a significant demographic shift, considering that natural population change—that is, the difference between births and deaths—is expected to be almost zero. This major change in the UK’s long-term demographic trends raises questions about the economic and social impacts of migration, aging, and workforce sustainability.
Migration as the Primary Driver of Population Growth
Over the next ten years, net migration is predicted by the ONS to increase the UK’s population by 4.9 million. This forecast makes the assumption that, starting in 2028, there will be an average annual net migration level of 340,000, which is less than recent records but still significant.
In contrast, it is anticipated that natural change will not significantly impact population increase. With 6.8 million births and a comparable number of deaths over the period, births and deaths are predicted to be almost equal. Although there may be a minor increase in birth rates, these benefits will be negated by growing death rates, which are connected to an aging population.
The population increase will not be uniform across the UK. England is expected to see the highest growth at 7.8%, followed by Wales (5.9%), Scotland (4.4%), and Northern Ireland (2.1%). These differences reflect both migration patterns and regional demographic trends.
Economic and Social Implications of an Ageing Population
The statistics also highlight the increasing difficulty posed by an aging population. Due to the aging of the baby boomer population and increased life expectancy, the number of people over 85 is expected to nearly double to 3.3 million by 2047. The healthcare system, pension financing, and the labor market will all be significantly impacted by this demographic shift.
The adult social care sector is already heavily reliant on migrant workers. A report by the Work Rights Centre (WoRC) found that one in four adult social care workers are foreign nationals, with 19% coming from outside the EU and 6% from within the EU. In frontline care roles, these proportions rise to 32% for care workers and 29% for senior care workers.
Some policy experts warn that increasing migration alone will not solve long-term economic challenges. Karl Williams, Research Director at the Centre for Policy Studies, noted that “even massive levels of net migration do very little to improve the long-term picture,” citing the rising ratio of pensioners to taxpayers. He suggested that economic productivity, rather than migration, should be the focus of government policy.
