13 Million Pensioners at Risk as DWP Signals ‘Inevitable’ Rule Change to State Pension System

A new rise in state pension payments may come with a cost. As public finances tighten, the Department for Work and Pensions hints that the long-standing triple lock guarantee could soon be reformed. With over 13 million retirees potentially affected, experts are warning of a shift in how future pensions are calculated.

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13 Million Pensioners at Risk as DWP Signals ‘Inevitable’ Rule Change to State Pension System | en.Econostrum.info - United Kingdom

From April, the full new state pension will increase to £230.25 per week, following a 4.1% uplift tied to the triple lock mechanism. As the government commits to this rise, experts now say a review of the rule underpinning it has become unavoidable.

The Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) has confirmed that over 13 million pensioners will see their state pension rise by approximately £470 a year.

While the increase offers welcome financial relief to many, growing concerns over the long-term sustainability of the triple lock are prompting serious discussions about reform.

Triple Lock Under Pressure as Costs Escalate

The triple lock system ensures that the state pension increases each year by the highest of inflation, average wage growth, or 2.5%. Introduced in 2010, the policy was designed to protect pensioners’ incomes and reduce poverty in old age. 

But with rising life expectancy, an ageing population and fluctuating wage data, the financial burden on the state has significantly grown.

According to Thomas Lambert, a financial planner at Quilter, the current trajectory is unsustainable. He stated: “We appear to be nearing a juncture where there will soon be an inevitable review of the triple lock.” 

He suggests that a more balanced model could see pensions increase in line with earnings, with Consumer Price Index (CPI) indexation applied when inflation surpasses wage growth.

The full new state pension will rise from £221.20 to £230.25 per week, beginning in April. While this remains a major component of retirement income, concerns persist over its affordability. The state pension is the single largest element of UK welfare spending, and its link to volatile economic indicators creates unpredictability for public finances.

Private Pensions and Benefit Eligibility in Decline

New figures from the DWP also highlight a significant decrease in pensioners claiming income-related benefits. In 1995, 37% of pensioners relied on such support; by 2010 this had dropped to 31%, and in 2024 it stands at 20%

According to Lambert, this decline reflects rising incomes from both state and private pensions, which in turn reduce eligibility for means-tested support.

Single pensioners remain more dependent on these benefits compared to couples, suggesting uneven financial resilience among retirees. 

Lisa Picardo, chief business officer at PensionBee UK, warned that wider reforms are being overlooked. “Millions of Britons are simply not saving enough for retirement, and the government has chosen to overlook potential ‘quick-win’ reforms,” she said.

Picardo called for measures such as a 10-day pension transfer switch guarantee, auto-enrolment expansion, and a universal tax relief rate, adding: “We cannot afford to keep kicking the can down the road when it comes to pension reform.”

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