A disturbance off the U.S. East Coast is gaining attention as meteorologists closely monitor its potential to strengthen into Tropical Storm Erin by the end of the week. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has identified a system that could bring substantial rainfall and wind impacts to several states, even if it does not reach tropical storm status.
This development is being closely tracked as the Atlantic hurricane season intensifies, with experts urging preparedness. According to Newsweek, AccuWeather’s Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva highlighted that despite limited thunderstorm activity so far, the system could evolve over the coming days, increasing the risk of weather disruptions.
Storm System Tracking and Risk Assessment
The NHC is currently monitoring three systems in the Atlantic Ocean. Tropical Storm Dexter, which is moving out to sea, is one of them, while two disturbances are of more immediate concern. One of these disturbances is located in the central tropical Atlantic, and another, closer to the U.S. East Coast, is being closely watched for potential strengthening.
According to AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva, this system, which has been identified off the Southeast coast, initially appeared to be heading toward the U.S. However, it now looks likely to run parallel to the coastline instead of making landfall.
Regardless of its precise movement, torrential rain and thunderstorms are expected to impact areas along the Southeast coast, particularly South Carolina and North Carolina, which face the highest risk of tropical rain and wind. Both states are at medium risk for significant impacts over the next few days.
The risk diminishes further north. Virginia is under a low-risk warning, while Maryland to Maine faces near-zero tropical storm risk. Experts at AccuWeather have highlighted the importance of preparing for wet conditions, especially in areas that have already experienced substantial rainfall this month.
These systems are likely to bring several inches of rain to the Southeast as the week progresses.
Long-Term Outlook and Hurricane Season Predictions
The system closest to the U.S. currently has a 10 percent chance of strengthening into a tropical storm within the next 48 hours. Over the next seven days, that probability increases to 40 percent. Alex DaSilva remarked,
In terms of thunderstorm activity, there’s not a whole lot going on, but I think that’s going to change here in the next day or so. It still looks like it’s going to be a wet pattern overall across the Southeast through late week, especially closer to the coast.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts between 13 and 19 named storms for this year’s Atlantic hurricane season. Of those, 6 to 10 are expected to strengthen into hurricanes, with 3 to 5 becoming major hurricanes. This forecast aligns with concerns that the peak of the hurricane season, typically occurring in September, could bring even more severe weather to the region.
In a recent update, the NHC described the system as a weak area of low pressure,
A weak area of low pressure has formed from a surface trough, several hundred miles off the coast of the southeastern United States. However, this system is currently producing only limited shower and thunderstorm activity and development is likely to be slow to occur during the next few days. Thereafter, environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for development. A tropical depression could still form by this weekend as the low initially drifts westward before turning northward to northeastward by the weekend.
