Coffee lovers across the U.S. are bracing for higher prices in the coming months as global supply chain disruptions push costs to new heights.
In February 2025, the price of ground roast coffee hit a record high, and experts predict that rising costs will continue to affect consumers and businesses alike.
The factors behind this surge are varied, from extreme weather conditions and geopolitical tensions to shifting international demand and financial speculation.
A Storm of Disruptions Hits Coffee Supply Chains
The coffee industry is currently experiencing a perfect storm of challenges that are driving up prices. According to the International Coffee Organization (ICO), global coffee exports in late 2024 saw significant declines, with key producers Brazil and Vietnam both reporting major setbacks.
Brazilian exports dropped 11.3% in December following severe droughts and frosts, while Vietnam’s coffee production was hit hard by an unseasonable drought in October, resulting in a 39.5% decrease in exports.
These weather-related disruptions have severely impacted the availability of green coffee beans, which in turn affects prices worldwide.
Additionally, geopolitical tensions have complicated the shipping process. The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, coupled with increased attacks in the Red Sea, has delayed vital maritime shipments.
This disruption impacts the movement of goods through the Suez Canal, which is a critical route for coffee-producing regions in Asia and Oceania.
According to the World Bank, these delays have further strained an already fragile supply chain, forcing coffee producers to increase their prices to cover the added shipping costs.
Price Volatility Driven by Financial Speculation
The rising cost of coffee is also being influenced by financial speculation, which has added an extra layer of volatility to the market. In February 2025, the price of wholesale arabica coffee hit $4.30 per pound, doubling the price from the previous year, according to Fox Business.
According to J.M. Smucker CEO Mark Smucker, coffee prices have been driven by speculation in the futures market, where traders bet on future prices rather than on actual supply and demand.
This speculative trading is contributing to the upward pressure on prices, as roasters who bought in the futures market at higher prices pass on these costs to consumers.
The coffee market’s reliance on futures contracts has traditionally allowed roasters to secure a lower price for beans, but recent market fluctuations are making this strategy less effective.
As the harvest season approaches, Smucker expects more clarity on crop yields, but the ongoing uncertainty around global supply chain issues means that coffee prices may remain high for the foreseeable future.
The U.S. coffee industry is at the mercy of these ongoing disruptions, and while companies like J.M. Smucker are trying to manage costs, consumers are likely to face the consequences.
With coffee being an essential part of many Americans’ daily routine, the current price surge is a challenge that businesses and consumers alike will have to navigate.
