As Chancellor Jeremy Hunt readies for another round of tax reductions in next week’s budget, economists caution that Britain's extended public services will bear the burden of post-election spending cuts.
Economists Caution as Chancellor Prepares for Tax Reductions
Experts predict that public sector spending levels projected for the upcoming parliament would entail cuts akin to those made by David Cameron's government during the 2010 to 2015 period. Some have even warned that the future government may lack the capacity to implement these cuts, potentially necessitating tax increases or increased borrowing to cover emergency expenditures.
The chancellor is considering additional cuts to public spending to finance reductions in either income tax or national insurance in the upcoming budget. Last week, the Resolution Foundation cautioned that such cuts could lead to a substantial reduction in budgets for certain departments over the parliamentary term, raising concerns among economists, trade unions, and even some members of the Conservative party.
James Smith, research director at the think tank, observed, “We are essentially returning to austerity levels of cuts in terms of the implied spending cuts.”
Regarding the potential for additional spending cuts to finance deeper tax cuts in the budget, Smith stated, “The current state of public services are generally pretty poor across the board. If any government was to try and implement these spending plans, they would lead to a deterioration in performance that would be unacceptable to any government.”
In a statement released last autumn, Hunt announced a 2% reduction in national insurance contributions, simultaneously forecasting that public spending would increase by 1% above inflation annually throughout the upcoming parliamentary term as a consequence.
However, a significant portion of those funds will be allocated to only a handful of departments with protected spending.
This includes health, where both the government and the Labour party have endorsed a plan to bolster staffing levels, necessitating annual budget increments of 3.6%. Similarly, defense is safeguarded due to Britain's commitment to meeting the NATO target of allocating 2% of GDP to defense, alongside international aid, which must maintain a minimum of 0.5% of gross national income.
As a result, departments lacking protection are poised to face substantial cuts over the next five years unless the subsequent government opts to raise taxes or increase borrowing. Among the departments likely to confront significant spending reductions are justice, local government, and the Home Office.
Political Parties Grapple with Approaches to Addressing Public Services Challenges
The Labour Party plans to alleviate some spending concerns with specific tax raises, such as terminating the non-dom regime, which will raise funds to finance more weekend and evening GP appointments.
Excluding those temporary initiatives, the Shadow Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, has firmly dismissed the possibility of increasing income or wealth taxes to cover ongoing departmental expenditures.
However, unlike in previous decades, the next government will be in office with public services already facing challenges.
In the justice system, the crown court case backlog for England and Wales reached 64,709 by June of last year, marking a more than 50% increase compared to three years prior. Furthermore, in 2022, the average processing time for an offense from its commission to the conclusion of a trial rose to 379 days, up from 251 days in 2019.
Regarding local government, eight English councils have effectively declared insolvency since 2018, with a fifth of local authorities expressing concerns about facing financial collapse within the next year.
Public sector unions have begun issuing warnings about the impending cuts. Christina McAnea, the general secretary of Unison, emphasized: “Public services are in the last chance saloon. Years of underfunding mean they’re already close to collapse and slashing spending further still is the last thing anyone needs.”
However, a significant number of Conservatives are similarly concerned about the potential implementation of the plans.
The Conservative Party's One Nation caucus, comprising 107 Tory MPs, urged the chancellor for prioritized support for young parents, workers, and students. Proposed measures include multi-year childcare settlements, capped student loan interest rates, a levy on vacant luxury flats, stamp duty abolition for downsizing house buyers, and direct tax cuts for working individuals. They also call for tax reform to ensure uniform taxation across income sources.