In an effort to allay rumours over when the next general election would be held, Rishi Sunak declared that his "working assumption" was that the vote would happen in the second half of the year.
When is the Next General Election Going to Take Place ?
The declaration was made in an attempt to thwart a Labour plot that called the prime minister a "bottler" if he did not call an early election in May, as opposed to waiting until the autumn.
Sunak rejected the possibility of an election on May 2nd, though Sir Kramer's Party was preparing itself for the potential of an early poll to make sure it is not caught off-guard if the prime minister takes a chance and goes to the country this spring.
Three scenarios are imaginable in this case: either an early vote in the latter part of spring or early summer, an election in the autumn, or a poll in January 2025 at the last minute.
On his Political Currency podcast, former Chancellor George Osborne asserted that Number 10 has identified November 14 as the most logical date for a poll.
Given that the Conservatives have fallen behind the Democrats by about 20 points in the polls, which would mean a stunning victory for Labour, Mr. Osborne declared that an early election would be a "non-starter."
The prime minister has stated clearly that he will focus on "managing the economy well and cutting people's taxes" until an election that is scheduled for "the second half of this year."
The 2% National Insurance decrease that was announced last year went into effect on January 6. Mr. Sunak has stated that he will further reduce taxes before an election, with a reduction in income taxes most likely to be featured in the upcoming March budget. According to Tory strategists, an autumn election would give voters more time to reap the benefits of such cuts.
In the event of a November election, Mr. Sunak might be able to mobilise his supporters in advance of a nationwide campaign during the Conservatives' annual conference at the end of September. It would also give the party time to "fit in an autumn statement, like a mini-budget, either before that or immediately after it," according to Mr. Osborne's further speculation.
In addition, Mr. Sunak may decide to hold an election the moment the Commons reassembles in September, which would force voters to cast ballots the following month. Party conferences would be discontinued in this case.
Could There be a Spring 2024 Election ?
Part of the rationale behind the Conservatives' potential October election bet is their projected ability to dramatically raise their polling position between now and later. However, not all the party members are certain that they can.
The advisors of Mr. Sunak are worried that despite significant policies aimed at improving their situation, like the reduction in National Insurance and the announcement in December of what Number 10 accurately called the largest-ever crackdown on lawful immigration, they don't seem to have benefited much from the polls.
Relentlessly, Mr. Sunak might opt to forgo waiting until the autumn and try his luck with an earlier election if significant policy announcements continue to fail to boost his popularity in the polls.
It was previously thought that a spring election would take place on May 2 in conjunction with the municipal and council elections of this year. However, according to the Institute for Government, this timing would mitigate the possibility that the prime minister would come under more pressure in the event of a significant defeat in the local elections.
According to the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022, Parliament will dissolve on December 17, 2024, if an election hasn't been called by then.
The last possible election day would be January 25, 2025, which would give the Conservatives more time to fulfil their promises, like reducing NHS waiting lists and tackling debt. However, recent polling and experts' expectations suggest that it might be too optimistic to expect improvements by then.
Moreover, campaigning over the Christmas period would be unappealing, neither for both political parties nor for the public.