The US is poised to reinstate a 20.91% tariff on fresh tomatoes from Mexico as a decades-old trade agreement expires. With 93% of American tomato imports coming from Mexico, the decision could have widespread consequences on both sides of the border.
The Suspension Agreement on Fresh Tomatoes from Mexico, first enacted in 1996, is set to expire on 14 July. As the US Department of Commerce prepares to withdraw, supply chains, growers, and consumers are bracing for a shift that may affect prices and production.
For nearly three decades, the deal has prevented formal anti-dumping duties on fresh tomato imports from Mexico, ensuring stable prices and a continuous supply. The collapse of this arrangement could significantly disrupt seasonal planting, distribution networks and availability — not only in the United States, but potentially across global supply chains.
Trade Policy Shift Targets Price Undercutting Claims
The Suspension Agreement originated from a long-standing dispute between US and Mexican growers, with American producers accusing their counterparts of exporting tomatoes at unfairly low prices.
According to the US Department of Commerce, the deal avoided formal tariffs in exchange for strict oversight on pricing, labelling, and quality control. The last renegotiation occurred in 2019, following renewed pressure from domestic agricultural groups.
Florida-based producer groups, such as the Florida Tomato Exchange, have led the charge to end the agreement, arguing it failed to curb undercutting. Supporters of the withdrawal claim that reintroducing duties will encourage fair competition and protect American farming jobs.
However, importers and distributors have voiced concern. The Fresh Produce Association of the Americas warned that the change may raise consumer tomato prices by up to 50%, though that figure remains speculative.
As most tomato imports into the US originate from Mexico — particularly during winter months — the added tariffs could influence market pricing beyond borders.
Market Uncertainty Impacts Growers and Supply Chain Workers
The consequences of the agreement’s end are already being felt. According to a 2025 forecast from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), Mexican growers have begun reducing planting activity for the crucial autumn–winter season.
This is the period when Mexican exports typically peak, compensating for reduced US production during colder months.
With fewer tomatoes expected to enter the US, labor demand in Mexico’s key farming regions — such as Sinaloa — may decline. Farm workers, packaging operators and export logistics teams could all face reduced hours or employment loss. On the US side, restaurants and grocers may begin adjusting menus and sourcing as inventories shift.
According to the USDA, Florida and California remain the top domestic producers, but they cannot fully meet national demand. The resulting gap, especially in off-peak seasons, may lead to increased reliance on alternative vegetables or imports from other regions, although neither can fully substitute the lost volumes.
