Snowfall predictions for the 2025-2026 winter season are beginning to take shape as meteorologists analyze trends and patterns across the U.S. These forecasts provide an early look at what states can expect in terms of snow accumulation, offering valuable insights into the upcoming season’s weather.
According to a report by Newsweek, the predictions rely on data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and include snowfall averages from the past 30 years. However, meteorologists like Chad Merrill from AccuWeather caution that these predictions should be viewed with care, as snow totals can vary due to shifting weather patterns and storm conditions.
What To Expect: Snowfall Projections for U.S. Regions
According to the forecast, significant snow is expected in several parts of the country. The Northeast and Northwest are likely to experience some of the heaviest snowfalls, along with the Upper Midwest, Great Plains, and Mountain West regions. These areas can expect snowfall totals to exceed historical averages, with certain locations potentially receiving more snow than usual.
Meteorologist Chad Merrill of AccuWeather notes that the total snowfall for the 2025-2026 season will be above the 30-year historical averages across the mountains in the Northwest, the northern Rockies, northeast Minnesota, Wisconsin, upper Michigan, and parts of eastern Oklahoma, southeastern Kansas, and western West Virginia.
However, snow is expected to be scarce in the Southwest, Mountain West, and along the East Coast, including areas like Florida and the Gulf Coast, where little to no snow is anticipated. This forecast suggests that while winter storms may bring some snow to northern regions, warmer climates will likely remain snow-free.
Important Considerations for Snowfall Forecasting
While this forecast offers a general idea of what to expect, it’s crucial to approach it with caution. Merrill explains that the data used to generate the map is based on a blended model of historical snowfall averages over the past 30 years and predictions from the ECMWF.
This means the forecast is a general estimate rather than a precise prediction for specific locations across the U.S.
Furthermore, the forecast uses a 10:1 snow ratio, which is the average amount of snow produced per unit of water. This ratio represents the transition between wet and dry snow. Wet snow is heavier and more compact, while dry snow is lighter and fluffier.
Merrill points out that this ratio is rarely consistent in real-world conditions. Each winter storm can produce different types of snow, and the wet-to-dry ratio can shift depending on how the storm develops. As Merrill warns,
“The snow-liquid ratio is rarely 10:1 at any one location for one storm, let alone for the entire season.”
Therefore, it’s important to interpret this forecast with a grain of salt, as it doesn’t account for the nuances of each individual storm.
Snowfall in Specific Regions: What to Expect
Certain regions will experience above-average snowfall this winter, especially the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, and most of the Northeast U.S. Meteorologist Mark Margavage highlights that the Lake Effect Snow areas around Buffalo, New York, will see less snow than normal due to their already high snowfall averages.
Additionally, the QBO (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation), a wind pattern in the upper atmosphere, will play a role in the storm tracks this winter. A negative QBO is expected to influence the path of storms, leading to less snow in eastern Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey, while inland areas like western Maryland, Pennsylvania, and parts of New York will likely see more snowfall.
Margavage’s prediction is important because the negative QBO typically forces storms along the Mid-Atlantic coast, reducing snow potential in coastal regions but increasing snow in areas further inland. As he notes,
“A negative QBO typically forces a storm track along or just inside the Mid-Atlantic coast”
which cuts down snow in those coastal areas but enhances the chances for snow further north and inland.
