Elon Musk has claimed that Social Security and other welfare programmes are plagued by fraud and improper payments, arguing that cutting $500 billion to $700 billion in government waste should be a key priority.
Speaking on Fox Business, he linked these concerns to his broader push for reducing federal spending as part of his advisory role in President Donald Trump’s administration.
However, official data, reports from government watchdogs, and an AP News analysis suggest that these figures exceed verified estimates, raising questions about the accuracy of Musk’s statements and the potential impact of his proposed reforms.
Musk’s Stance on Entitlement Cuts
During his Fox Business interview, Musk suggested that entitlement programmes should be eliminated rather than simply reducing fraud. He stated, “Most of the federal spending is entitlements. That’s the big one to eliminate.” This statement drew criticism from across the political spectrum, as it implies a move towards dismantling key social programmes.
While Trump has repeatedly assured that Social Security will be protected, Musk’s position on spending reductions has led to concerns that benefits may still be at risk.
Fraud Estimates in Social Security and Other Federal Programmes
Musk’s assertion that fraud in entitlement programmes is the largest source of waste has been met with scepticism. The Government Accountability Office (GAO) reported in 2024 that fraud across all federal programmes could range from $233 billion to $521 billion per year, but this estimate includes pandemic relief programmes and other government expenditures, not just Social Security, Medicare, or Medicaid.
The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) reported a much lower confirmed fraud figure, estimating $4.41 billion to $7.31 billion per year in cases that have been legally verified through investigations. Musk’s claim of $500 billion to $700 billion in fraud exceeds even the highest GAO estimates and does not appear to be supported by publicly available government data.
The acting commissioner of the Social Security Administration (SSA), denied that this represents widespread fraud, clarifying that these individuals are not necessarily receiving payments.
A 2021 SSA Inspector General report identified $298 million in improper payments to deceased beneficiaries over a 21-year period (1998-2019). This figure, though significant, represents a small fraction of Social Security’s $1.3 trillion annual budget.
Musk has described Social Security as “the biggest Ponzi scheme of all time”, raising concerns about its long-term sustainability. However, Social Security operates through payroll tax contributions and follows a legally mandated funding structure, making it distinct from fraudulent investment schemes.
Do Illegal Immigrants Receive Social Security Benefits?
Musk also claimed that federal welfare programmes are being used to attract and retain illegal immigrants, ultimately turning them into voters. However, there is no evidence to support this assertion.
Undocumented workers do not qualify for Social Security benefits unless they obtain legal status and contribute to the system for at least 10 years. Many undocumented immigrants still pay payroll taxes using Individual Taxpayer Identification Numbers (ITINs) but are not eligible to receive benefits.
Despite Musk’s push for reducing entitlement spending, Trump has publicly stated that Social Security will be protected. On 11 March, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt reaffirmed that Trump does not support eliminating Social Security benefits, instead focusing on reducing waste and fraud.
However, recent closures of Social Security Administration (SSA) offices could make it more difficult for beneficiaries to access services, raising concerns that administrative changes could still impact recipients.
Social Security’s Long-Term Funding Challenge
While Musk emphasises fraud and improper payments, the biggest financial challenge facing Social Security is demographic.
According to the 2024 Social Security Trustees Report, the programme will not be able to pay full benefits by 2035 unless Congress enacts changes. The worker-to-beneficiary ratio is declining, creating an imbalance between revenue from payroll taxes and the cost of benefits paid out.
The Baby Boomer generation (born 1946-1964) is retiring in large numbers, while fewer younger workers are entering the workforce to sustain the system. Additionally, longer life expectancy has increased the length of time beneficiaries collect payments, further straining the programme.
Musk argues that eliminating fraud could help stabilise the budget, but available figures indicate that fraud is not the main driver of the programme’s financial challenges. The $71.8 billion in improper Social Security payments from 2015 to 2022 represents less than 1% of total benefits paid over that period.
Even if 100% of these improper payments were recovered, it would not address the long-term funding shortfall.
Political Risks and Public Reaction
Musk’s comments have drawn attention within conservative political circles, as many Trump voters rely on Social Security and Medicare. The programme has often been referred to as the “third rail” of American politics, meaning that policy changes related to it can be politically damaging.
Even fiscal conservatives have avoided proposing major Social Security reforms due to fears of voter backlash. With Elon Musk advocating for aggressive government downsizing, Trump faces the challenge of appealing to both deficit hawks and working-class voters who depend on these benefits.
Several options have been proposed to ensure the long-term viability of Social Security. Some policymakers suggest raising the payroll tax cap so that higher-income earners contribute more.
Others propose gradually increasing the retirement age to reflect longer life expectancy. Adjusting benefit formulas to slow the rate of cost growth has also been considered. These proposals, however, have been politically controversial, as both parties recognise the risks of making changes to a programme relied upon by millions of Americans.
