Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has indicated that further interest rate cuts are probable this year, given the encouraging signs that inflation is approaching the Bank’s target.
Interest Rate Cuts: Still on the Table
Financial markets are expecting more than one rate cut this year, a view that Bailey seems to share. According to him, rate cuts will remain “on the agenda” for future meetings of the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). This builds on evidence that tighter policy has successfully averted the risk of a wage-price spiral.
“It’s like Sherlock Holmes’ dog that didn’t bark. If the second-round effects don’t materialise, that’s beneficial because monetary policy has done its job.” stated Andrew Bailey.
Mr Bailey notes that their assessment of the situation is increasingly positive. Global shocks are easing and there is currently no evidence of persistently high inflation. However, this assessment needs to be constantly reassessed.
Some other leading central banks, such as the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, have raised the possibility of cutting interest rates over the summer. The authorities are increasingly confident in their ability to manage the worst inflationary spike in a generation.
UK Interest Rates Remain Unchanged
This week, the Monetary Policy Committee kept UK interest rates at 5.25%. Official data shows that inflation has fallen to 3.4%, its lowest level for over two years. Concluding the meeting, Mr Bailey expressed optimism about the UK economy. “This is clearly good news”, he commented.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who built his election strategy on improving the economy, lowering inflation and cutting interest rates ahead of polling day, is likely to welcome Mr Bailey’s optimistic comments.
Sunak stated this week that 2024 will be the year the economy ‘bounces back‘ and urged Conservative MPs to remain composed and support his economic plan.
Differing Views Within the MPC
Mr Bailey confirmed that the MPC was divided over how reassuring they felt these indicators made them feel. He was keen to stress that the Bank’s work on inflation was not yet complete.
“Some members feel more at ease with the emerging evidence, while others believe we are still far from being confident.” said Andrew Bailey.
Full Employment Amid Disinflation
The UK is in a rather unique economic situation. It is experiencing falling inflation rates despite being close to full employment. This is a unique economic situation as historically, curbing rising prices has often resulted in higher unemployment.
However, Mr. Bailey notes that Britain is currently ‘effectively disinflating at full employment,’ a scenario not typically seen in economic textbooks.
When it comes to setting monetary policy, the Bank of England faces a conundrum. Inflation has slowed from its double-digit peaks but remains above target, while job openings are plentiful and unemployment is extremely low. Politicians must consider carefully how tight the current labour market actually is.
Mr. Bailey acknowledged that the Bank is pursuing a ‘narrow’ and nuanced path. They are closely examining all available data to understand this unusual situation and ensure Britain’s economic stability in the months ahead.
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“Further” implies there has already been an interest rate cut or cuts.