Fuel prices in Australia are once again on edge. Behind the scenes, geopolitical instability and fragile energy supply lines are quietly pushing costs higher. For households, the ripple effects are already beginning to show \u2014 and they may intensify soon.<\/p>\n
Economists at Westpac have outlined several scenarios tied to the evolving conflict involving Iran, Israel, and the United States. At the center of concern lies the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow but critical oil transit route.<\/p>\n
The bank\u2019s modelling ranges from a stable baseline to more disruptive outcomes, including a one-month closure with limited damage and a two-month shutdown with infrastructure impacts and slower recovery. At present, forecasts lean toward the more severe scenario.<\/p>\n
There has been a slight shift in tone recently. A temporary two-week ceasefire and signals that the strait may be reopening have introduced some cautious relief. Still, the situation remains fluid \u2014 and markets tend to react quickly, sometimes even nervously, to that kind of uncertainty.<\/p>\n
Under current projections, unleaded petrol could climb to around $2.46 per litre by late May, reports Yahoo Finance<\/a>. That figure does not exist in isolation. The gradual return of the fuel excise is expected to add roughly 26 cents per litre, further tightening household budgets.<\/p>\n Although Brent crude is trading below $100 per barrel, forecasts suggest an average closer to $120 over the June quarter. That gap reflects expectations of renewed pressure rather than current conditions \u2014 a detail that can feel abstract, but shows up very concretely at the pump.<\/p>\n Australian drivers have already experienced a sharp increase, with fuel prices rising 35% in March alone. And despite brief dips, the overall trajectory still points upward.<\/p>\nInflation Pressures Spreading Through the Economy<\/h2>\n