{"id":108714,"date":"2026-01-19T11:30:00","date_gmt":"2026-01-19T00:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.econostrum.info\/au\/?p=108714"},"modified":"2026-01-19T01:11:33","modified_gmt":"2026-01-18T14:11:33","slug":"housing-target-at-risk","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/en.econostrum.info\/au\/housing-target-at-risk\/","title":{"rendered":"Massive Cost Blowout Puts Australia\u2019s Housing Target at Risk"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>It started as a bold plan to fix Australia\u2019s housing crisis \u2014 but now, the numbers aren\u2019t adding up. The Albanese government\u2019s pledge to build 1.2 million new homes by mid-2029 has run into financial and logistical trouble, and experts say it may be time to rethink what\u2019s realistic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Cost of the Housing Target Soars<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>According to Treasury figures, the cost of the federal government\u2019s Housing Australia initiative has ballooned by $3.8 billion in less than a year. The program, designed to help meet the national housing target, is now expected to cost $15.2 billion over the next four years \u2014 up from the $11.4 billion forecast in last May\u2019s budget.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Treasury attributed the surge to \u201creprofiling\u201d and changes in how funds are distributed, but the higher price tag has reignited debate about whether the government\u2019s goal is achievable. Both Treasurer Jim Chalmers and Housing Minister Clare O\u2019Neil have stood by the commitment, insisting that the 1.2 million homes target remains on track.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yet leading developers, economists, and industry groups are increasingly sceptical.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">&quot;The Albanese government\u2019s housing target of 1.2 million new homes by mid-2029 will cost $3.8bn more than Treasury forecast less than a year ago.&quot;<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/eyhjOLZiwO\">https:\/\/t.co\/eyhjOLZiwO<\/a><br>Labor can&#39;t count. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/E9zWChjzCh\">pic.twitter.com\/E9zWChjzCh<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Timjbo \ud83c\udde6\ud83c\uddfa (@TimjboAU) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/TimjboAU\/status\/2012804008256360910?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">January 18, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Experts Warn of \u201cUnrealistic\u201d Housing Goals<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Developers across the country argue that the current target is unlikely to be met without sweeping reforms. Rising construction costs, worker shortages, and planning bottlenecks are all slowing progress, reports <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theaustralian.com.au\/subscribe\/news\/1\/?sourceCode=TAWEB_WRE170_a_GGN&amp;dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theaustralian.com.au%2Fnation%2Fpolitics%2Falbanese-governments-housing-target-cost-blows-out-by-38bn-as-experts-warn-of-failure%2Fnews-story%2Ffc06f679fe3248e02f12402be558df15&amp;memtype=anonymous&amp;mode=premium&amp;v21=LOW-Segment-1-SCORE&amp;V21spcbehaviour=append\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The Australian<\/a>. Industry veteran Mark Steinert, formerly of Stockland, has pointed to elevated material prices, productivity issues, and union pressures as major obstacles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Other developers, like Don O\u2019Rorke of Consolidated Property, have called for a total rethink of how success is defined \u2014 suggesting the focus shift from raw housing numbers to affordability and workplace productivity. Experts warn that unless planning laws are relaxed, skilled migration expanded, and land supply increased, Australia risks repeating the mistakes seen in Canada, New Zealand, and the UK, where ambitious housing promises have consistently fallen short.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">A Global Problem, Local Pressures<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The Reserve Bank of Australia has also expressed doubts about short-term progress, noting that new supply is unlikely to ease <a href=\"https:\/\/en.econostrum.info\/au\/housing-crunch\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the housing crunch<\/a> over the next two years. Meanwhile, the Productivity Commission has urged the government to expand skilled migration to fill gaps in the construction sector.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Housing Industry Association says the country is still well behind the pace needed to reach 1.2 million new dwellings by 2029. To stay on track, around 240,000 homes would need to be built each year \u2014 far above the current rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">A Warning From History<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Around the world, housing targets have become political minefields. Programs in Canada, the United States, and New Zealand have failed to meet expectations, hampered by the same mix of costs, regulation, and labour shortages now facing Australia. If Labor\u2019s plan is to succeed, experts say it will require not just funding but structural reform \u2014 and a willingness to rethink how Australia defines \u201caffordable housing\u201d in the years ahead.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Labor\u2019s $10 billion housing plan faces a $3.8 billion blowout, with experts warning Australia\u2019s 1.2 million homes target is drifting out of reach.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":108160,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[15],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-108714","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-housing","generate-columns","tablet-grid-50","mobile-grid-100","grid-parent","grid-33","no-featured-image-padding"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/en.econostrum.info\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/108714","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/en.econostrum.info\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/en.econostrum.info\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/en.econostrum.info\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/14"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/en.econostrum.info\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=108714"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/en.econostrum.info\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/108714\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":108716,"href":"https:\/\/en.econostrum.info\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/108714\/revisions\/108716"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/en.econostrum.info\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/108160"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/en.econostrum.info\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=108714"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/en.econostrum.info\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=108714"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/en.econostrum.info\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=108714"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}