{"id":108533,"date":"2026-01-09T10:31:00","date_gmt":"2026-01-08T23:31:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.econostrum.info\/au\/?p=108533"},"modified":"2026-01-08T22:04:42","modified_gmt":"2026-01-08T11:04:42","slug":"will-rates-go-up-again","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/en.econostrum.info\/au\/will-rates-go-up-again\/","title":{"rendered":"The RBA&#8217;s Toughest Decision Yet: Will Rates Go Up Again?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>It\u2019s the million-dollar question that\u2019s been on everyone\u2019s lips: what will the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) do with interest rates next? Will they hold steady, or is another hike on the horizon? With so much uncertainty, it\u2019s easy to feel like we\u2019re all caught in a guessing game. Well, here\u2019s the latest\u2014brace yourself, because it\u2019s not exactly good news for mortgage holders.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Inflation Numbers That Don\u2019t Quite Add Up<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/en.econostrum.info\/au\/australias-surprise-inflation-drop\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Australia\u2019s inflation<\/a> numbers came in with a slight drop, but don\u2019t be fooled into thinking it\u2019s all smooth sailing ahead. The headline annual inflation rate fell to 3.4% for the year until November, which is better than expected. But, as any seasoned economist will tell you, there\u2019s more than meets the eye when it comes to inflation. The trimmed mean inflation, the number that the RBA pays the most attention to, only dropped a little\u2014to 3.2%. Not exactly a sharp turn toward stability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Harry Ottley, an economist at the Commonwealth Bank, has pointed out that this drop is a mixed bag. While the cost of goods like those Black Friday sales items went down, the prices of services, including housing-related costs, are still on the rise. So, what\u2019s the RBA to do? If you ask Ottley, the answer is simple: expect another cash rate hike in February. He\u2019s betting on a 0.25% increase, bringing the official cash rate to 3.85%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">\u201cA new year and we are straight back into talk of inflation. But while the November inflation figures released on Wednesday were lower than expected, it is unlikely to do much to affect the outlook for interest rates.&quot; &#8211; Greg Jericho<br><br>Read more: <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/JGzYEYhaff\">https:\/\/t.co\/JGzYEYhaff<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/NBG5qeddQ0\">pic.twitter.com\/NBG5qeddQ0<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Australia Institute (@TheAusInstitute) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/TheAusInstitute\/status\/2009085489031336415?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">January 8, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Tug-of-War Over Rate Hikes<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>But, not everyone\u2019s on the same page. Over at ANZ and Westpac, there\u2019s a bit more optimism. Both banks are predicting that<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rba.gov.au\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> the RBA<\/a> will hold the rates steady at 3.60% for now. Their reasoning? They\u2019re waiting for the quarterly inflation figures at the end of January, which they hope will show a slowing of inflation. A bit of cautious optimism, perhaps, but the timing could make all the difference.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Westpac\u2019s economist Justin Smirk points to the moderating impact of energy prices, thanks to the phasing out of state and federal subsidies, as a sign that things might be cooling off, reports <a href=\"https:\/\/au.finance.yahoo.com\/news\/major-banks-huge-rba-rate-001742619.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Yahoo Finance<\/a>. But, of course, it\u2019s hard to say for certain. If inflation keeps climbing, all bets are off.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Bottom Line: Rate Hikes Could Keep Coming<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>One thing\u2019s for sure: the RBA has a tough job ahead of them. As the economy struggles with rising inflation and housing costs, it\u2019s becoming clear that rate hikes might not be a thing of the past just yet. In fact, some economists, like Warren Hogan from EQ Economics, are already predicting that the cash rate is &#8220;too low&#8221; and that we could see multiple hikes before the financial year ends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you\u2019re feeling the strain of higher mortgage payments, you\u2019re definitely not alone. With no clear answer on what the RBA will do next, it might be time to buckle up for a bumpy ride ahead. Whether rates go up or hold steady, one thing is certain: it\u2019s going to be a tense wait until February 3rd when the RBA makes their big decision.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Will the RBA raise interest rates again in February? Experts are divided, but one thing&#8217;s clear: mortgage holders could face more pain ahead.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":107332,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[44],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-108533","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","generate-columns","tablet-grid-50","mobile-grid-100","grid-parent","grid-33","no-featured-image-padding"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/en.econostrum.info\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/108533","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/en.econostrum.info\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/en.econostrum.info\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/en.econostrum.info\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/14"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/en.econostrum.info\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=108533"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/en.econostrum.info\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/108533\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":108534,"href":"https:\/\/en.econostrum.info\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/108533\/revisions\/108534"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/en.econostrum.info\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/107332"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/en.econostrum.info\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=108533"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/en.econostrum.info\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=108533"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/en.econostrum.info\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=108533"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}