{"id":107490,"date":"2025-11-20T07:30:00","date_gmt":"2025-11-19T20:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.econostrum.info\/au\/?p=107490"},"modified":"2025-11-19T21:00:38","modified_gmt":"2025-11-19T10:00:38","slug":"wages-keep-climbing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/en.econostrum.info\/au\/wages-keep-climbing\/","title":{"rendered":"Wages Keep Climbing, But Inflation May Catch Up Soon"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Wages are tricky business. Just when it feels like they\u2019re moving in the right direction, inflation comes rushing in, threatening to undo all the progress. And that\u2019s where we find ourselves right now. The latest figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) show that, for now, workers are getting a slight edge. But will it last?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Numbers Behind the Story<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Over the year to September 2025, wages grew by 3.4%, reports <a href=\"https:\/\/www.abs.gov.au\/statistics\/economy\/price-indexes-and-inflation\/wage-price-index-australia\/sep-2025\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the ABS<\/a>. On the surface, that sounds pretty solid\u2014after all, it\u2019s slightly above the inflation rate of 3.2%. This means, for the first time in a long while, many Australians are seeing their purchasing power increase. Real wages, after adjusting for inflation, have now grown for eight straight quarters. That\u2019s the longest stretch of real wage growth we\u2019ve seen in almost a decade. Good news, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">An Economic Flip Ahead?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Well, not so fast. Economists are sounding the alarm. The same people who forecasted this steady growth are now predicting a shift. As inflation edges higher and wage growth slows, real wages are likely to dip in the coming months. It\u2019s a sobering thought: the rise in wages could soon be outpaced by rising prices, turning that positive trend into a negative one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">..the % of workers seeing a wage rise of 4% or more continues to fall.<br>Stable wages grth at 3.4%y is consistent with the jobs mkt being balanced, not tight.<br>Slowing priv wages grth (more important for infl) leaves the door open for another rate cut but the RBA wont be hurrying <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/F8GSmC6Jlz\">pic.twitter.com\/F8GSmC6Jlz<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Shane Oliver (@ShaneOliverAMP) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ShaneOliverAMP\/status\/1990960040879206682?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">November 19, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Public vs. Private Sector Wage Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Interestingly, public sector workers seem to have fared better than their private-sector counterparts. On average, state government employees received a 3.8% wage increase, while private sector wages grew by just 3.2%. And here&#8217;s a fun fact: 82% of this public sector wage growth came from state government workers. That\u2019s a pretty specific breakdown, but it paints a picture of who\u2019s really benefitting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But it\u2019s not all doom and gloom. There\u2019s a silver lining. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) seems reassured that wage growth, while steady, isn\u2019t spiraling out of control. So, at least for now, the risk of an overheating economy seems less likely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">A Cooling Off Period Ahead?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Looking ahead, though, we might see wage growth continue to cool. The numbers are pointing toward a potential plateau. And while that\u2019s a bit of a letdown, it\u2019s not all bad. Slow and steady, as they say, keeps the economy on track without causing inflation to run wild. So, while workers might not see the same kind of wage jumps next year, the stability could be just as important.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the end, the story of wages is a balancing act. As <a href=\"https:\/\/en.econostrum.info\/au\/3-2-inflation-australia\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">inflation<\/a> rises and economic conditions shift, the real challenge will be keeping that balance intact. But for now, workers can rest easy knowing they\u2019ve had a brief window of progress. It might not last forever, but it&#8217;s something to hold on to. For now, anyway.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Despite steady growth, wages are just ahead of inflation, with experts cautioning that this trend may slow down in the near future.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":107491,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[44],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-107490","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","generate-columns","tablet-grid-50","mobile-grid-100","grid-parent","grid-33","no-featured-image-padding"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/en.econostrum.info\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/107490","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/en.econostrum.info\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/en.econostrum.info\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/en.econostrum.info\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/14"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/en.econostrum.info\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=107490"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/en.econostrum.info\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/107490\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":107492,"href":"https:\/\/en.econostrum.info\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/107490\/revisions\/107492"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/en.econostrum.info\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/107491"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/en.econostrum.info\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=107490"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/en.econostrum.info\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=107490"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/en.econostrum.info\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=107490"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}