While not all tropical lows<\/strong> develop into full-fledged cyclones, they are still capable of producing strong winds and heavy rainfall<\/strong>, leading to potential flooding and hazardous conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n

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The BOM’s seven-day cyclone forecast shows five systems brewing off the coasts as of Sunday, February 2.\u00a0Source: Bureau of Meteorology<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n
Cyclone Potential Remains Uncertain<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Meteorologist Jonathan How<\/strong> noted that it is uncommon to observe so many simultaneous tropical systems<\/strong> in the Australian region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cSometimes you do see two or three systems in an active period, and we have had instances of two tropical cyclones at the same time,\u201d he said. \u201cBut seeing five tropical lows<\/strong> is unusual.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite the forecasted activity, uncertainty remains regarding how many of these systems will develop into cyclones and whether any will make landfall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Tropical Low near Cairns Most Likely to Impact the Coast<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Among the five systems, the one located near Cairns<\/strong> is the first to be classified as a tropical low<\/strong> and has the highest likelihood of impacting the coast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Current forecasts indicate a low chance<\/strong> of it becoming a cyclone on Thursday and Friday<\/strong>, but this probability increases to 25% (moderate chance)<\/strong> by Saturday <\/strong>and Sunday<\/strong>. The system is expected to shift further offshore, where warmer waters<\/strong> and reduced land interaction<\/strong> could fuel its development.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Regardless of cyclone formation, heavy rainfall<\/strong> is expected across Queensland\u2019s north-east tropical coast<\/strong>, from Townsville to Port Douglas<\/strong>, over the weekend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cEven if it doesn\u2019t reach cyclone strength, Queenslanders should monitor forecasts closely due to the potential for flooding,\u201d Mr How advised.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The region has already experienced significant rainfall, with 200-300mm recorded<\/strong> along the Cairns coastline and down to Ingham and Cardwell<\/strong> earlier this week. As a result, flood warnings<\/strong> are in place for the Mulgrave River, Russell River, and Tully River<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Gulf of Carpentaria System Adds Complexity<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Another system of concern is the one forecast to form in the Gulf of Carpentaria<\/strong> by Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This system has a moderate chance of becoming a cyclone<\/strong> between Sunday and Monday<\/strong>, but its development is uncertain due to potential interactions with the Cairns system<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Mr How described this as a complex meteorological scenario<\/strong>, where one system could strengthen at the expense of the other. Additionally, the shallow waters and surrounding coastlines<\/strong> in the Gulf can influence storm behavior, making its trajectory more unpredictable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If it develops, this system could bring heavy rainfall<\/strong> to Queensland\u2019s north-western areas and the Gulf Coast<\/strong> later in the weekend.<\/p>\n\n\n
\n
$\"\"$
The Bureau of Meteorology rainfall forecast shows 300mm to 400mm is expected to fall in some parts of northern Queensland during the next eight days. Bureau of Meteorology)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n
Three Other Systems Unlikely to Impact Mainland Australia<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
The remaining three tropical systems<\/strong>\u2014two near Western Australia\u2019s Kimberley region<\/strong> and one in the Coral Sea<\/strong>\u2014are expected to move away from the Australian mainland due to steering winds<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
While they pose no immediate threat to Australia, the system in the Coral Sea<\/strong> could potentially impact New Caledonia or Vanuatu<\/strong> next week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Delayed Monsoon Onset for Darwin<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
The surge in tropical activity<\/strong> follows a historically late monsoon onset<\/strong> for northern Australia<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The monsoon<\/strong>, a seasonal shift in wind patterns bringing widespread heavy rains<\/strong>, typically provides relief from intense humidity<\/strong> in the Northern Territory\u2019s Top End<\/strong>. However, Darwin has endured months of oppressive conditions<\/strong>, marking the latest monsoon onset on record<\/strong> since data collection began in 1957-58<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
While it has yet to officially begin, forecasts suggest the monsoon could develop over Darwin by Friday<\/strong>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has flagged an unusual weather pattern, with up to four potential cyclones forming over Australian waters in the coming days. While forecasts remain uncertain, some of these systems could intensify, bringing heavy rain and strong winds to parts of the country. One tropical low near Cairns is already drawing attention, but it\u2019s not the only one to watch. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":100844,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[20],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-100838","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-weather","generate-columns","tablet-grid-50","mobile-grid-100","grid-parent","grid-33","no-featured-image-padding"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/en.econostrum.info\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/100838","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/en.econostrum.info\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/en.econostrum.info\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/en.econostrum.info\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/en.econostrum.info\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=100838"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/en.econostrum.info\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/100838\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":100846,"href":"https:\/\/en.econostrum.info\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/100838\/revisions\/100846"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/en.econostrum.info\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/100844"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/en.econostrum.info\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=100838"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/en.econostrum.info\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=100838"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/en.econostrum.info\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=100838"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}