The global economic turmoil triggered by US tariffs may offer a surprising silver lining for Australian homeowners. As the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prepares to cut interest rates, the combination of lower mortgage repayments and an increased demand for housing could drive home prices higher.
Amid the ongoing trade disruptions caused by President Trump’s tariffs, local homeowners could see significant financial relief. The anticipated interest rate cuts could ease the burden of high mortgage repayments and, paradoxically, fuel growth in the housing market despite broader economic uncertainty.
The Effect of Rate Cuts on Mortgage Holders
The global economic slowdown, partly driven by US tariffs, has spurred expectations that the Reserve Bank will implement further interest rate cuts to stimulate the Australian economy.
Economists predict that the RBA will lower the cash rate by 0.5% in May 2025, which would mark the second of several anticipated cuts throughout the year. According to Finder.com.au, this could result in substantial savings for homeowners.
For example, homeowners with an average loan of $665,000 could see an annual saving of around $5,000 from rate cuts. For those in higher-priced markets, such as Sydney or southeast Queensland, where mortgages often reach $1 million, the savings could be as much as $7,600 annually.
These reductions in mortgage repayments are expected to inject additional disposable income into households, offering a financial boost at a time when the broader economy faces uncertainty.
Potential Price Growth in the Housing Market
Beyond the immediate financial relief for homeowners, these rate cuts could also fuel growth in the housing market. The economic disruption caused by the tariffs, combined with the low interest rates, could push housing prices upward.
Research from My Housing Market indicates that Australian housing markets have historically responded positively to rate cuts, even in times of global economic uncertainty.
According to economist Andrew Wilson, “Australian housing markets are very sensitive to rate changes, especially rate cuts.” This was evident during the global financial crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic when interest rate reductions were linked to an uptick in housing prices.
With ongoing competition for housing, the increase in buyer budgets—thanks to lower mortgage repayments—could further drive price growth in many Australian regions, especially in areas where housing supply remains tight.
However, not all experts agree that the positive effects on housing prices will be widespread. Ray White economist Nerida Conisbee highlights that the full impact of the rate cuts will depend on the broader economic environment, noting that the global recession and rising unemployment could dampen demand despite lower rates.
