Australia’s federal government appears unable or unwilling to set a clear immigration target, with student visa approvals reaching record highs despite political efforts to curb numbers. The discrepancy between government forecasts and actual migration levels raises concerns over housing supply and economic sustainability.
While Australia’s Treasury has forecasted net overseas migration of 340,000 in 2024-25, the reality may far exceed this projection. A surge in offshore student visa approvals in late 2023 suggests that migration will continue to rise, exacerbating pressures on housing and infrastructure.
Yet, there is no formal immigration target, leaving universities, businesses, and the property sector to shape the nation’s migration program.
Record-high student visas challenge government’s approach
Despite the government’s attempts to slow down student visa processing, the number of offshore higher education visas issued in November and December 2023 reached an all-time record, according to official data.
This follows the failure of a legislative proposal last year to cap international student numbers, which was blocked by both the Coalition and the Greens.
Universities, struggling with reduced government funding, have been key drivers of migration. The demand for international students has been a financial necessity for many institutions, making them significant players in shaping migration patterns.
Meanwhile, the Business Council of Australia and the property sector have also benefited from increased migration, with more students contributing to labour supply and rental demand.
The absence of a defined immigration target, distinct from Treasury’s economic forecasts, highlights a broader governance issue. Without a set policy, migration levels fluctuate based on economic needs rather than a strategic long-term plan.
According to analysts, this reactive approach risks exacerbating housing shortages and infrastructure strains.
Housing supply struggles to match increasing demand
Australia’s housing market is under severe pressure, with net migration far outpacing new housing supply. According to official figures, net migration reached 444,700 in the year to June 2024, while natural population growth contributed an estimated 120,000.
Meanwhile, housing completions in the same period stood at just 177,022 units, creating a significant shortfall.
With average household sizes at approximately 2.4 people per dwelling, current housing construction rates are insufficient to accommodate population growth.
State governments have introduced ambitious housing targets—such as the National Housing Accord’s goal of 1.2 million new homes over five years—but these figures remain aspirational rather than guaranteed outcomes.
Moreover, challenges in construction, including high costs, labour shortages, and restrictive zoning laws, make it unlikely that supply will keep up with demand.
While some metropolitan councils have raised height limits to encourage apartment development, experts warn that financial and regulatory barriers continue to hinder large-scale projects.
