Australia’s inflation has surged to a 12-month high, closing the door on a potential September rate cut and reigniting pressure on the Reserve Bank to keep rates steady—or even lift them. The Australian economy has been dealt a fresh blow as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.8% in the year to July 2025, placing inflation at the upper end of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) 2–3% target band.
According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), this is the highest annual rate recorded since July 2024, signalling a reversal in the disinflationary trend observed in recent months.
Economists and market watchers had anticipated further easing in inflation, potentially paving the way for a September rate cut. But the rebound has shifted focus back towards the risk of persistent inflation, while also raising questions about the reliability of early economic signals.
Energy Costs and Housing Drive Price Pressures
The July CPI data revealed that several key components contributed to the surprise increase, with electricity prices leading the charge. According to the ABS, electricity surged 13.1% over the past year, including a 13% spike in July alone, largely due to the absence of Energy Bill Relief Fund payments in New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory.
Housing costs rose 3.6% year-on-year, outpacing the 3% increase in food and non-alcoholic beverages, while alcohol and tobacco recorded a larger-than-average rise of 6.5%. Overall, these categories contributed to a broad-based inflationary trend that appears to be taking hold once again.
More tellingly, underlying inflation—which strips out more volatile items such as fuel and holiday travel—was up 3.2% in July, up from 2.5% in June. The trimmed mean inflation figure, a measure closely monitored by the RBA, also climbed from 2.1% to 2.7%, suggesting that inflationary pressures are becoming more entrenched.
RBA Policy Outlook Shifts Amid Renewed Uncertainty
The inflation shock has prompted economists to reconsider the RBA’s path forward. Belinda Allen, chief economist at CommBank, said that although inflation was a key focus in the past, the RBA’s August minutes showed a pivot towards labour market dynamics.
According to Allen, the September rate cut is now “unlikely” unless there is a “significant deterioration” in employment figures. She noted that a 25 basis point cut is still expected in November, but only if inflation moderates and labour data justifies it.
The next cash rate decision is scheduled for 29–30 September, with the Q2 GDP report due on 3 September and updated labour market data arriving on 18 September. These figures will be closely watched as they shape the RBA’s short-term policy direction amid rising uncertainty.
