Australia’s recent federal election has sparked renewed scrutiny of how immigration is debated and deployed in political campaigns.
At the heart of the Coalition’s platform was a promise to significantly cut net overseas migration — a policy that not only drew controversy but, according to analysts, may have played a role in the party’s electoral defeat.
The proposed reduction, aimed primarily at skilled migration, came amid heightened national concerns over housing supply and infrastructure capacity.
Yet within the country’s most diverse electorates, the Coalition’s stance appears to have resonated negatively.
Migration Policy Becomes Campaign Liability
A central element of the Coalition’s election platform — a pledge to reduce net overseas migration by 100,000 — may have contributed to its significant electoral defeat, according to post-election analysis.
The approach was framed as a response to pressure on housing and infrastructure but faced criticism for its tone and lack of clarity.
The cuts were intended to target skilled migration, while partner and working holiday visa categories were to remain untouched. Yet the absence of detailed policy left room for concern within Australia’s most diverse electorates.
With the country still absorbing post-pandemic migration rebounds, the Coalition’s stance drew scrutiny in several multicultural seats across Sydney and Melbourne.
Pushback From Migrant Communities
Polling expert Simon Welsh, director at Redbridge Group, stated the Coalition’s strategy “absolutely backfired,” particularly among voters from migrant backgrounds.
According to Welsh, the electorate was seeking “hope and a positive plan,” but instead perceived a message of “negativity” on key issues such as immigration, remote work and public service reform.
Communities in a “growth phase” — including those of Indian and Chinese heritage — were especially affected, with concerns centred on family reunification and future settlement prospects.
“For families that are thinking about wanting to bring family over… that Liberal stuff was definitely a drag to them,” Welsh said.
This sentiment was reflected in election outcomes across highly diverse seats. Labor held on to electorates such as Hawke, Gorton and Chisholm in Victoria, and Parramatta and Reid in New South Wales, despite polling earlier in the campaign indicating they were contestable.
Rhetoric Linked to Fear and Division
Outgoing Liberal leader Peter Dutton tied record migration levels — which peaked at 536,000 in 2022–23 — to increased housing demand and rising prices.
While he pledged to reduce student numbers via higher visa fees and cuts to public university places, the broader messaging was seen by some as divisive.
The Asylum Seeker Resource Centre commented that voters had rejected “the politics of fear and division,” instead backing candidates promoting inclusion.
Deputy CEO Jane Favero called on Parliament to mirror “the compassion” shown by the electorate.
Academic analysis supports this interpretation. In a March working paper, Professors Peter McDonald and Alan Gamlen of the ANU Migration Hub stated that migration figures had been “weaponised” to provoke panic and influence voters.
They attributed the 2022–23 migration spike to post-COVID travel normalisation, including students and temporary workers.
