Black Friday 2025 is shaping up to be the biggest retail event Australia has ever seen. Shoppers are already hunting for deals, with expectations of record-breaking sales. But, with the economic climate still in flux, will Australians go all in on discounts, or will cautious spending take the lead? Either way, the shopping frenzy is about to hit a new high.
Record-Breaking Sales Expected
The Australian Retailers Association (ARA), in partnership with Roy Morgan, estimates that Australians will collectively spend a massive $6.8 billion over the Black Friday-Cyber Monday weekend. That’s a 4% increase from last year, which, in itself, had already seen big numbers. About 6 million Australians are expected to participate, and on average, they’ll be forking out $804 each. Women will account for the lion’s share, with 3.5 million expected to shop, while men make up the remaining 2.5 million. It’s clear that both genders are equally keen to take advantage of those tempting discounts.
Black Friday and Christmas Shopping: A Perfect Match
“November has become the new December when it comes to Christmas shopping,” said Fleur Brown, Chief Industry Officer at ARA, to ABC. She pointed out that Black Friday is now a key part of the Christmas shopping cycle, with many Aussies snapping up deals to lighten their holiday spending. The catch, though, is that many people are still feeling the squeeze from the ongoing cost-of-living crisis. For many, these sales are an opportunity to pick up a few gifts without breaking the bank.
Rising Consumer Sentiment: Is it Enough?
The good news for retailers is that consumer sentiment is on the up. Thanks to recent interest rate cuts, shoppers are feeling a bit more optimistic. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute survey showed that consumer sentiment surged by 12.8% in November, marking the first time in nearly four years that optimists outnumber pessimists. While this is promising, it doesn’t mean everyone is feeling flush—those with mortgages are still more likely to feel uncertain about their spending.
Shoppers are Ready to Buy
For stores like JB Hi-Fi, it’s clear that Black Friday is no longer a last-minute rush but a planned event. Warwick Hall, a store manager at Melbourne’s Chadstone Shopping Centre, said shoppers are coming in with a clear idea of what they want—whether it’s a shiny new TV or perhaps a turntable to spin some vinyl. The anticipation for these sales is palpable, and many are researching deals well in advance.
AI: The New Shopping Assistant
Meanwhile, AI is playing a bigger role in shaping the shopping experience. A recent Shopify survey found that a growing number of Australians are using artificial intelligence to help guide their purchases. Whether it’s finding the best deals or discovering new products, AI has become an essential shopping companion. Retailers are noticing this trend too, with traffic to their websites increasing significantly thanks to AI-driven recommendations.
Inflation and Interest Rates: The Wildcards
While the surge in optimism is a positive sign for retailers, there are still concerns that inflation and potential interest rate hikes could dampen the mood. If rates go up again, it could lead to a dip in consumer spending—something that would not be welcome after years of cautious retail conditions. For now, though, Australians are gearing up for a big Black Friday. Whether they’re shopping online, in-store, or a mix of both, it’s clear that the hunt for deals is on, and this year’s sales are set to shatter all previous records.
