Australia’s population is set to hit a significant milestone in 2026, reaching 28 million people. But here’s the twist: the country’s population growth is slowing down. Despite the expected population bump, the numbers don’t tell the whole story. Migration is cooling off, and birth rates are dropping. So, what does this all mean for the future of the country?
What’s Driving the Slowdown in Population Growth?
According to the latest projections from the Centre for Population, Australia’s population growth is expected to drop to just 1.3% in 2026, down from 1.5% the previous year, reports ABC News. This slowdown is largely due to a decrease in overseas migration. After the pandemic-driven surge in migration, net overseas migration is expected to fall to around 260,000 in 2026—roughly half of what it was in 2023. Many temporary visa holders are leaving as their visas near expiration, and new arrivals are fewer in number.
While immigration has been the main driver of Australia’s population growth over the past few decades, this shift suggests that the growth model might need some rethinking. The federal government has been making moves to address this, but debates around the issue, particularly the number of migrants coming into the country, will continue to heat up in the political arena.
Birth Rates on the Decline
It’s not just migration that’s slowing down growth. Australia’s birth rate is also expected to continue falling in 2026, dipping to an alarming 1.45 children per woman. That’s well below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman, a trend that’s seen in many developed countries. More Australians are opting for smaller families, or delaying having children altogether, as they face increasing pressures from the cost of living and housing affordability.
Interestingly, despite the decline, two-child families remain the most common in Australia. However, the growing number of couples choosing not to have children at all is concerning. It’s a trend that’s rising faster in Australia than in countries like the US and Denmark, where family sizes are more stable.
So, What Does This Mean for Australia’s Future?
Looking ahead, the population growth patterns are shifting the way we think about Australia’s future. Melbourne, for example, is projected to become the most populous city in the country by the 2060s, surpassing Sydney. The two cities are expected to pass 8 million residents by the 2050s, with Melbourne hitting a projected 9.1 million by 2066.
In contrast, some areas, like Tasmania and South Australia, are expected to see slower population growth. On the other hand, Western Australia is predicted to see the highest growth, largely driven by migration from other states and overseas.
A Changing Australia
With these shifts in population, it’s clear that Australia is on the brink of change. The decline in migration and birth rates means fewer people to support the country’s growing economic needs. How the government and businesses adapt will be critical to the nation’s future. Treasurer Jim Chalmers has already signaled that there will be continued efforts to support families and ease cost-of-living pressures, which may help reverse some of these trends.
What’s Next?
In the meantime, Australia’s median age is expected to rise, with projections putting it at 40.2 years by 2035-36. As the nation faces a growing aging population, the government will need to continue adapting policies to ensure social support and economic stability. There’s no simple fix, but one thing’s clear—Australia will have to rethink how it manages its people, resources, and economy in the coming years.
