Australia’s birthrate has continued to decline in 2024, particularly in the country’s largest cities, as residents grapple with the ongoing cost-of-living crisis. Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane saw further drops in the number of children born per woman, marking a deepening trend that threatens to have long-term consequences for the nation’s demographic makeup.
Recent data from KPMG’s preliminary analysis of Australian Bureau of Statistics figures reveals a troubling decline in fertility rates, with the national rate reaching a near-record low of 1.51 in 2024.
This represents a stark fall from 1.8 a decade earlier, signalling a growing reluctance among young families to expand their households amid rising costs. While regions outside major urban centres have experienced slight improvements, the situation in Australia’s biggest cities paints a grim picture.
The Strain of Skyrocketing Living Costs
According to Amanda Davies, Professor of Demography at the University of Western Australia, many young families have been forced to delay or abandon their plans to have children due to the unsustainable cost of living.
“Not much has changed for people who are looking at having a family or thinking about extending their family; they are really struggling,” she stated.
The soaring prices of housing, healthcare, and education in capital cities have left many Australians feeling uncertain about their ability to support a family, further exacerbating the country’s already low fertility rate.
The trend is particularly evident in Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane, where families are increasingly being pushed out of central urban areas. As housing becomes less affordable and schools and hospitals reach full capacity, many young Australians find it more practical to delay starting a family.
In some cases, they are opting to move to regional areas where the cost of living remains relatively lower, although this has not been enough to reverse the overall decline in birthrates.
Regional Shift and Increased Fertility Outside Major Cities
Interestingly, the data shows that fertility rates are slightly higher in regional Australia and some outer suburbs. While birthrates in capital cities have fallen, areas such as Perth and various regional centres have seen more stable or even rising numbers of births, due in part to improved job opportunities and better housing affordability.
For example, the city of Perth saw its fertility rate rebound in 2024, marking the highest rate since 2021. This trend, according to Terry Rawnsley, an urban economist at KPMG, has been driven by a stronger local economy and more affordable living conditions compared to the eastern capitals.
The shift away from crowded urban centres towards regional areas is a significant trend, with many families seeking more affordable housing options. Rawnsley suggests that this migration, accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic and remote work opportunities, has helped sustain the birthrate in regions outside the largest cities.
