Econostrum | Economic News in the Mediterranean

Morocco forecasts 2.8% growth in the first quarter of 2022

Written by Eric Apim on Thursday, January 6th 2022 à 09:05 | Read 312 times

The good orientation of the BTP allows to envisage a beautiful progression of the investment in Morocco in 2022 (photo: F.Dubessy)
The good orientation of the BTP allows to envisage a beautiful progression of the investment in Morocco in 2022 (photo: F.Dubessy)
MOROCCO. In a press release published on Wednesday, January 5, 2022, the Moroccan High Commission for Planning (HCP) is confident about the beginning of 2022. In its economic report for the fourth quarter of 2021, the institution mentions an economic activity increase of 2.8% in annual variation in the first quarter of 2022 against 1% in the first quarter of 2021. It attributes this to "an increase of 3.4% in value added excluding agriculture".

According to these forecasts, the tertiary sector should progress by 1.6 points and the secondary sector, the industrial and construction activities should continue their improvement initiated since the second quarter of 2021. As for agriculture, it should undergo a fall of 4.5% "after having been particularly dynamic in 2021", specifies the HCP. The world demand addressed to Morocco could increase by 2.4% in annual variation over this period, but remains conditional on the evolution of the sanitary situation.

Domestic demand should continue to grow, but in lesser proportions, particularly at the level of household expenditure. Public spending will continue to rise, with public consumption estimated at 4.5%. "Gross investment will progress at a rate of 7.8%, driven by the good orientation of investment in industrial equipment and construction", adds the HCP. 

Recovery of aeronautics

In 2021, after an increase of 1% in the first quarter (0.1% in the same period in 2020), 15.2% in the second quarter (-13.8% in 2020) and 7.8% in the third quarter of 2021 (-7.2% in 2020), the Moroccan economy has slowed down to reach a growth of only 4.9% in the fourth quarter (-5.5% in 2020).

The last months of the year benefited from "an increase of 2.9% of the value added outside agriculture and an increase of 19.1% of that of agriculture" according to the HCP.

"At the national level, exports of goods in value have increased by 24%, benefiting from a positive price effect on exports and the relatively favourable orientation of foreign demand. They would have been carried by the improvement of the external sales of phosphates and derivatives, in a context of increase in their prices on the world market, by the increase in exports of clothing and hosiery goods, those of electrical and electronic industries, agricultural and agro-food products and, to a lesser extent, of the automobile in its construction segment. Exports of aeronautics would, for their part, have shown some signs of recovery in connection with the gradual revival of the aeronautics sector at world and European level, after the strong decline of 2020", the document details.

Imports up sharply

Imports rose by 26% in the fourth quarter of 2021. They have suffered "the increase in import prices, particularly those of raw materials, combined with a correction effect after the decline recorded in 2020. The energy bill would have been impacted by the increase in imports of gas oils and fuels and other hydrocarbons. Excluding energy, the increase in imports would have been fuelled much more by that of semi-finished products, raw products and, to a lesser extent, by that of industrial capital goods and consumer goods, in particular passenger cars, medicines and other pharmaceutical products.

The foreign demand addressed to Morocco during the fourth quarter of 2021 progressed by 3.6% in annual variation, against 8.1% during the previous quarter. The HEC attributes this decline to "the slowdown in trade from emerging economies, congestion at ports and the persistence of bottlenecks in the production of certain goods such as automobiles and semi-conductors.

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