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Red, blue or green? According to the Medpro policy paper, “Scenarios Assessment and Transitions towards a Sustainable Euro-Mediterranean in 2030” (1) written by Medpro President Rym Ayadi and Carlo Sessa, the future of Euro-Mediterranean cooperation is not just a question of colour, although each one represents a path with a different outcome.
Throughout the Mediterranean region, each zone has its problems with around zero growth, rampant unemployment and budgetary cutbacks in the North... and major upheavals in the South since 2010 including the recent events in Egypt and Turkey that look bad for long term stability.
For Medpro, the risks linked to a status quo are extremely negative. This is the “red” scenario.
An alliance (blue) or integration (green) scenario presents much more positive opportunities, if the transformations are far-reaching. The two analysts provide key elements that stem from a “business as usual” (BAU) point of reference and also the use of transitions models.
Throughout the Mediterranean region, each zone has its problems with around zero growth, rampant unemployment and budgetary cutbacks in the North... and major upheavals in the South since 2010 including the recent events in Egypt and Turkey that look bad for long term stability.
For Medpro, the risks linked to a status quo are extremely negative. This is the “red” scenario.
An alliance (blue) or integration (green) scenario presents much more positive opportunities, if the transformations are far-reaching. The two analysts provide key elements that stem from a “business as usual” (BAU) point of reference and also the use of transitions models.
Alternatives et consequences
In the most pessimistic scenario, in 2030 the Mediterranean becomes a dividing line between conflicting civilisations. Between 2015 and 2030 there is a drop in trade, investment, personal consumption and tourism coupled with a rise in unemployment, a spreading of violence between countries or regions of a nation... Tensions between the two shores of the Mediterranean increase, namely due to illegal immigration, or even terrorist acts. MEDPRO assess the total loss of GBP at around $5,240 billion
In the two other scenarios detailed by the authors, global economic growth would be beyond the 4 to 5% seen these past ten years. With the institutional “Euro-Mediterranean alliance” (European Union, Arab League...), Europe assists in the economic and social modernisation processes in Southern and Eastern countries, promotes more balanced relations and builds South-South cooperation on common sustainable development projects. The more ambitious “Euro-Mediterranean economic zone” would led to the building of major cooperation and exchange programmes concerning energy, water, the environment, transport, education, human mobility... the creation of wealth would benefit different countries in different ways according to progress made in their reform processes.
The short-term action plan will focus on the spread of democracy, good governance, human rights, social justice... Mid-term and longer term, it will define the partnerships and adjustments required in relation to mobility, education, R&D, energy transition...
Under such a vision, the Mediterranean will become the link between prosperous and peaceful civilisations. The Euro-Mediterranean will represent a powerful force alongside the American and Asian blocs. The EMEA (Euro-Mediterranean Economists Association), a panel of leading economists and high-level experts will oversee the realisation of the process.
(1) http://www.medpro-foresight.eu/publication/scenarios-assessment-and-transitions-towards-sustainable-euro-mediterranean-2030
Version française
Lire aussi : L'interview de Rym Ayadi : Les pays du sud attendent beaucoup plus de l'Europe, leur premier partenaire
In the two other scenarios detailed by the authors, global economic growth would be beyond the 4 to 5% seen these past ten years. With the institutional “Euro-Mediterranean alliance” (European Union, Arab League...), Europe assists in the economic and social modernisation processes in Southern and Eastern countries, promotes more balanced relations and builds South-South cooperation on common sustainable development projects. The more ambitious “Euro-Mediterranean economic zone” would led to the building of major cooperation and exchange programmes concerning energy, water, the environment, transport, education, human mobility... the creation of wealth would benefit different countries in different ways according to progress made in their reform processes.
The short-term action plan will focus on the spread of democracy, good governance, human rights, social justice... Mid-term and longer term, it will define the partnerships and adjustments required in relation to mobility, education, R&D, energy transition...
Under such a vision, the Mediterranean will become the link between prosperous and peaceful civilisations. The Euro-Mediterranean will represent a powerful force alongside the American and Asian blocs. The EMEA (Euro-Mediterranean Economists Association), a panel of leading economists and high-level experts will oversee the realisation of the process.
(1) http://www.medpro-foresight.eu/publication/scenarios-assessment-and-transitions-towards-sustainable-euro-mediterranean-2030
Version française
Lire aussi : L'interview de Rym Ayadi : Les pays du sud attendent beaucoup plus de l'Europe, leur premier partenaire
