Demographic growth is seriously slowing down in Algeria

Fall in births, rise in deaths, the Algerian population is growing at a much more measured pace (photo: F.Dubessy)

ALGERIA. On 1 January 2021, the population in Algeria reached 44.6 million inhabitants, compared to 44.24 million on 1 July 2020, according to figures published on Monday 24 January 2022 by the National Statistics Office (ONS).

The share of the population under five years of age fell from 11.7% to 11.5% between 2019 and 2020. The same applies to those aged between fifteen and fifty-nine, with a decline (60% in 2019 and 59.6% in 2020).
On the other hand, the populations aged between five and nine and under fifteen years of age are increasing, with 10.5% (compared with 10.4% in 2019) and 30.6% (compared with 30.4%) respectively. The same phenomenon affects the over-sixties (9.8% compared to 9.5%).

The organisation indicates that this slowdown in growth is explained by a combined effect of several factors concerning the numbers of births, deaths and marriages.

Firstly, the decline in live births (992,000 with 104 boys for every 100 girls) does not reach the one million mark over the year 2020. This is a first since 2014. The crude birth rate is affected by this with a ratio of 22.42% (compared to 23.80% in 2019). And the fertility rate of three children per woman in 2019 is only 2.9 in 2020.

Births are falling (chart: ONS)

Men represent 50.7% of the total population

Secondly, deaths (236,000, i.e. +37,000 deaths compared to 2019) have increased significantly in 2020. This, combined with the rising neonatal mortality rate (from 0 to 27 days) (14.9% of the 18,700 infant deaths), results in a 1.6-year drop in life expectancy at birth. This means 76.3 years (74.5 years for men and 78.1 years for women) and a return to the level recorded in 2009.
The natural growth rate in 2020 is 1.71% (-0.22 points compared to 2019), down since 2017.

Finally, the number of registered marriages continues to decline, and even accelerates (-10%), with only 283,000 unions in 2020. This trend began in 2014 and is explained by "the impact of the change in the age structure of the population on the decline in the volume of marriages", says the ONS study. The population aged between twenty and thirty-four (representing 80% of marriages) has been declining since 2015 (from 10.99 million to 10.42 million).

Men represent 50.7% of the total population.

Births are falling (chart: ONS)

According to ONS forecasts, based on the assumption of similar growth, Algeria's demography should rise to 44.4 million by 1 January 2022.